LA-04: Three New Polls Show The Race Either Close, Or Not Close

The great thing about polls is that sometimes they're all over the map. Check out the latest trifecta in the LA-04 race, which pits Democrat Paul Carmouche against Republican John Fleming.

First, the independent poll, from SurveyUSA:

SurveyUSA for Roll Call. 11/17-18. Likely voters. MoE 3.9%

Fleming (R) 47
Carmouche (D) 45

Close race, this one. In fact, Fleming's own internals show it even closer, although they also show him ahead:

Public Opinion Strategies (POS) for John Fleming. 11/17-18. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%

Fleming (R) 43
Carmouche (D) 42

OK, so this is a deadlock with a Fleming edge, right? Not so fast: Carmouche's internals show him up big:

The Kitchens Group for Paul Carmouche. 11/18-19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (11/6-7 numbers)

Carmouche (D) 48
Fleming (R) 37

Hmmm. The strangest thing about this poll is that it pegs black turnout as  lower than either Fleming's internals or the SUSA poll...but nevertheless gives the 'Mouche an 11-point lead.

Bottom line, consider this a tossup. If Carmouche does wind up winning big, so much the better.

On the web:
Paul Carmouche for Congress