GA-Sen: not much change

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4% (11/10-12 results)

Chambliss (R) 51 (49)
Martin (D) 45 (46)

The Election NIght results of this race were 49-46 Chambliss. The poll last week, when asking respondents who they voted for on Election Night, came back 49-47. Today, that number is 52-44. That means that the likely voter screen is stripping out many Election Night Democratic voters, accounting for Chambliss' gains in this poll.

This, of course, is the danger in the special, especially in a red-leaning state like Georgia -- that many people who turned out for Obama won't turn out for Martin in a special. And given that many of those Election NIght voters are more casual voters (like young voters), this is a real factor.

Still, special elections feature funky turnouts, and Democrats have been recently successful in winning special elections in some seriously Red districts. This Senate race is higher profile than many of those low-interest House special elections, but fact is, the race is tight enough that the victor will win this thing on the ground.

On the web:
Jim Martin for Senate
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

p.s. Why hasn't Obama used his email list to fundraise for Martin?

GEORGIA POLL RESULTS – NOVEMBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Georgia Poll was conducted from November 17 through November 19, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  289 (48%)
Women                311 (52%)

Democrats            216 (36%)
Republicans          235 (39%)
Independents/Other   149 (25%)

18-29                 96 (16%)
30-44                198 (33%)
45-59                186 (31%)
60+                  120 (20%)

White                426 (71%)
Black                156 (26%)
Hispanic              12 (2%)
Other                6 (1%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Martin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         34%         30%         15%          2%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 53%         45%          2%

MEN                 50%         49%          1%
WOMEN               56%         41%          3%

DEMOCRATS           81%         18%          1%
REPUBLICANS         30%         68%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        50%         47%          3%

18-29               55%         43%          2%
30-44               56%         42%          2%
45-59               54%         45%          1%
60+                 47%         50%          3%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Saxby Chambliss? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 19%         37%         31%         12%          1%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 56%         43%          1%

MEN                 60%         39%          1%
WOMEN               52%         47%          1%

DEMOCRATS           33%         66%          1%
REPUBLICANS         79%         20%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        53%         45%          2%

18-29               53%         46%          1%
30-44               56%         43%          1%
45-59               57%         42%          1%
60+                 58%         40%          2%

QUESTION: If the run-off election for U.S. Senate were held today would you
vote for Jim Martin the Democrat or Saxby Chambliss the Republican?

                   CHAMBLISS   MARTIN      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         45%          4%

MEN                 53%         44%          3%
WOMEN               49%         46%          5%

DEMOCRATS           12%         86%          2%
REPUBLICANS         87%          9%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        50%         42%          8%

WHITE               69%         28%          3%
BLACK                5%         88%          7%
HISPANIC            14%         75%         11%
OTHER               12%         79%          9%

18-29               46%         51%          3%
30-44               50%         46%          4%
45-59               52%         44%          4%
60+                 54%         42%          4%

                   NOVEMBER    4           VOTE:      

QUESTION: In the election for U.S. Senate who did you vote for on November 4 Jim Martin the Democrat Saxby Chambliss the Republican or Allen Buckley the Libertarian?
                   CHAMBLISS   MARTIN      BUCKLEY     OTHER      

ALL                 52%         44%          3%          1%

MEN                 54%         41%          4%          1%
WOMEN               50%         47%          2%          1%

DEMOCRATS           12%         86%          1%          1%
REPUBLICANS         89%          7%          3%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        51%         41%          7%          1%

WHITE               71%         24%          4%          1%
BLACK                5%         92%          2%          1%
HISPANIC            15%         83%          1%          1%
OTHER               14%         84%          1%          1%

18-29               47%         50%          2%          1%
30-44               51%         45%          3%          1%
45-59               53%         43%          3%          1%
60+                 55%         41%          3%          1%

QUESTION: In the election for President who did you vote for on November 4 the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER      

ALL                 53%         46%          1%

MEN                 60%         39%          1%
WOMEN               46%         53%          1%

DEMOCRATS            8%         91%          1%
REPUBLICANS         93%          6%          1%
OTHER               56%         42%          2%

WHITE               74%         25%          1%
BLACK                2%         98%         -
HISPANIC            12%         86%          2%
OTHER               11%         88%          1%

18-29               47%         52%          1%
30-44               50%         49%          1%
45-59               56%         43%          1%
60+                 59%         40%          1%