AZ-Sen, MN-07, SD-AL: Potential Obama Appointments And Their Electoral Ramifications

SusanG reported earlier, via the Washington Post, that Arizona's Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano is President-elect Obama's pick to serve as the next head of the Department of Homeland Security.

Napolitano is a solid pick on the merits, and should be easily confirmed. For party building, however, the pick is problematic for two reasons.

First, Napolitano is the front-runner for the U.S. Senate race in 2010, for the seat currently held by John McCain. She is probably the only candidate who can beat McCain head-to-head, and he has announced his plans to run for reelection.

With Napolitano in the race, it would have been one of the country's highest - profile races and a guaranteed barn-burner. Without Napolitano in the race, well, McCain's going to get a free ride.

Compounding this issue is that Napolitano vacating the governorship would make Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer - a Republican - the new governor.

This would be a serious problem, as it would give Brewer two years of incumbency before a prospective 2010 race with the expected Democratic candidate, Attorney General Terry Goddard. And with redistricting around the corner, holding the Governor's seat in Arizona is essential. (UPDATE: Apparently redistricting in Arizona is conducted by nonpartisan commission, so holding the Governorship would make no difference in terms of redistricting).

Several other rumored picks for Obama might be problematic in terms of long-term party building:

Republicans could gain another House seat in the 111th Congress — thanks to the newly elected Democratic president.

Barack Obama’s choice for secretary of Agriculture could take one Democrat from the 20-seat pickup the party gained by way of the recent elections. (Three House races have yet to be called and two seats in Louisiana will be filled on Dec. 6.)

According to reports, Obama is considering Reps. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) for the USDA post. His transition team declined to comment on Cabinet speculation.

Both Peterson and Herseth Sandlin hail from Republican territory. Peterson's district is the most Republican in Minnesota by PVI - even the Sixth District which reelected Michele Bachmann is less Republican than MN-07.

Herseth Sandlin's district, SD-AL, is even more Republican, with a PVI of R+10, though since it's a statewide "district" there is a greater number of strong Democrats who can potentially take the seat. Two of them include  Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem, and attorney Brendan Johnson (the son of U.S. Senator Tim Johnson).

It would be a pretty essential seat to hold, as SD-AL has been a pipeline to the U.S. Senate over the past two decades. Both the state's current Senators, Tim Johnson and John Thune, served as SD-AL representatives, as did the last two Senators from the state, Tom Daschle and Larry Pressler.

In fact, every elected Senator for the past sixty years from South Dakota has served in the House previously. So it's a pretty good bet that whoever holds SD-AL might end up in the Senate.

As for Peterson's seat, it will be extremely tough to hold if he leaves the House, but it's not a Senate pipeline like SD-AL.

Obama is obviously going to pick who he wants for Cabinet positions, and that's fine. It's perfectly well and good to pick current officeholders for the position as well. But hopefully he won't have to take too many more Democrats from vulnerable districts or states.

Also, as an indication that he really is interested in long-term party building, it would be great if he'd send out a fundraising email for Jim Martin, who's getting badly outspent in Georgia.

Update: In response to the Napolitano pick and the possibilities of Peterson and Herseth Sandlin, DavidNYC has put together a handy list of suggested appointments for the Obama administration here...