My methodology:
Average all polls taken in past month, or take the most recent poll if none have been taken in the last month, and multiply by 1/3
Average all polls taken in last week, or take the most recent poll if none have been taken in the last week, and multiply by 2/3
Sum the two numbers.
The EV count I get right now is the following:
Bush - 279
Kerry - 252
Tied - 7
Breakdown by state strength.
A "hard" state is a state with a score > 10
A "soft" state is a state with a score between 5.0 and 9.9
A "border" state is state with a score between 0.1 and 4.9
A tied state is a state with a score of 0.0
Bush
Hard EVs - 147
Soft EVs - 36 (183)
Border EVs - 96
Kerry
Hard EVs - 78
Soft EVs - 101 (179)
Border EVs - 73
Battleground States (states considered Border or tied). Scores listed, states with negative scores are states where Bush is leading:
Iowa (7): 0.0
Florida (27): -0.6
New Mexico (5): -0.8
Minnesota (10): 0.9
Ohio (20): -0.9
Nevada (5): -1.0
Wisconsin (10): 1.4
Missouri (11): -1.7
Maine (4): 1.9
Oregon (7): 3.1
Pennsylvania (21): 3.4
Virginia (13): -3.6
New Hampshire (4): 4.0
Michigan (17): 4.2
North Carolina (15): -4.2
Edit
Just a little update:
Average border state strength:
Bush: -1.8
Kerry: 2.7
Average border Electoral Vote strength:
Bush: -1.8
Kerry: 2.9