Next Year's Model: An Early Look At Next Cycle's Races

There's always an election more or less around the corner, and in this case, 2009 and 2010 should be exceptionally interesting years in term of the balance of power in the Senate, and the control of governorships prior to the 2010 census and subsequent redistricting.

So here's an early look at how 2009-2010 races appear at the outset. Everything is speculation at this point, of course, but if you're curious about specific races and possible candidates, here's a little bit of information.

In the first of several instalments on the 2009-2010 races, let's look at the first eight states alphabetically - Alabama through Delaware.

We'll know more every month from now until the filing deadlines in 2010, but here's how things look at the moment.

Alabama

At the statewide level, the biggest race is expected to be the Governor's race, where two-term incumbent Gov. Bob Riley is term-limited.

There's a Senate seat up as well, currently held by 76-year-old Republican Richard Shelby. That race is unlikely to draw as much attention unless Shelby retires, and it's currently looking as though he won't. Even if Shelby did retire, Riley (a former Congressman) would be in excellent position to run for the seat himself, and he'd probably scare most Democrats out of the race if he did.

The major concern about the Governor's race is that it's rumored that the state's best political talent - Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom, Jr., Rep. Artur Davis, and former Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks - are all interested in the race. Davis was mentioned for a Cabinet position in the Obama administration, but with the Attorney General position having gone to Eric Holder, his sights appear to be focused on the Gov race.

Davis would be the first African-American elected Governor in modern Alabama history if he ran and won, but he might have difficulty getting elected. Barack Obama carried just 10% of the white vote in Alabama. Davis being an Alabama native and much more centrist than Obama, he would probably fare better, but it's unclear whether he'd be able to garner the white support necessary to win statewide.

Folsom - a former Governor himself and son of one of the state's most beloved Governors, Big Jim Folsom - is well positioned for a run, if he gets through the Democratic primary. He would likely have a significantly better shot than Davis in the general. With Alabama's exceptionally large black population, however, Folsom may have difficulty winning the primary with Davis in it.

That difficulty would be compounded if Sparks - a populist with strong support among progressives - were to run. Sparks opted against a U.S. Senate race in 2008, and probably regrets it now. He'd be a very good statewide candidate, having already won election for two terms as Ag Commissioner. However, he was reluctant to run in the primary in 2008 against a weaker candidate than Davis or Folsom. Would he enter a primary with both heavyweights in it?

The best case scenario would probably be something like this: if Senator Shelby retires, and the three candidates run for the top three officers - one for Senate, one for Governor, one for Lieutenant Governor.

At the House level, the races which currently look like they might be competitive are: AL-02, where Democrat Bobby Bright beat Republican Jay Love by just 1,500 votes in 2008; AL-03, where Republican Mike Rogers squeaked by Democrat Josh Segall in 2008, 53-47, and might well be vulnerable to a second challenge; and AL-05, where freshman Democrat Parker Griffith will surely face a decent Republican challenger here.

Alaska

Although Governor Sarah Palin's favorables and job approvals have dropped significantly, she's still exceptionally popular and is the overwhelming favorite for reelection, and unlikely to draw a particularly strong challenger.

Incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski isn't in the same boat - she won her 2004 reelection by just three points against former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles - but it's still a Republican state. The same could be said by long-time Rep. Don Young, who despite considerable legal and ethical problems, managed to win reelection by five points over Democrat Ethan Berkowitz.

Can a Democrat beat any of these three? Sure, the right Democrat could potentially take out Young or Murkowski - neither of them performed especially well in their last race, it won't be a presidential election year and turnout should be lower Palin should be pretty safe regardless. Berkowitz might run again for something. Former state Rep. Eric Croft would be a pretty decent candidate as well. Anyone else?

Arizona

The news that Governor Janet Napolitano is favored for a position as head of the Department of Homeland Security is doubly bad news for these races. First, it means that Republican Jan Brewer will get a head start in the race for Governor, as she will take over from Napolitano if and when Napolitano is sworn is at DHS.

Meanwhile, John McCain is running for reelection to the Senate, and while Napolitano wasn't a sure bet to challenge him, she was possibly the only one who could have beaten McCain, and the strongest candidate by far.

So with Napolitano out, and McCain consequently getting a free ride, the attention shifts to the Governor's race. If Napolitano served out her term, the race was shaping up to be a fun one and a real barn-burner, between Brewer, the current Secretary of State, and the presumptive Democratic nominee, current Attorney General and former Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard. It remains to be seen how much of an effect Brewer's two years of incumbency would have on the race.

In the House, Republicans will probably try and mount challenges to freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and second-termers Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell. There's a chance for an exciting special election here if Rep. Raul Grijalva is indeed going to be the next Secretary of the Interior (he'd be an excellent choice, and the most liberal person yet tabbed for the cabinet). There's no danger of losing Grijalva's seat, so the replacement would be all about electing the most solid progressive in the primary.

Beyond these races, Democrats may take a flier on trying to beat Republican John Shadegg, who got just 54% against Dem opponent Bob Lord in 2008. That's a tough race to win, and maybe it can't be done, but you never know.

Arkansas

Should be the Most Boring State In The Union Electorally, once again, in 2010. All four Representatives - three Democrats and one Republican - should be safe. Democratic Governor Mike Beebe should be reelected. Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln should be reelected as well.

Republicans could surprise us by nominating some exceptionally strong candidates, but we'll have to see it to believe it.

California

This, on the other hand, should be exciting. Senator Barbara Boxer is up for reelection, and she ought to win, unless she happens to face an exceptionally strong candidate like, say, term-limited Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I feel that Boxer would beat the Governator (who has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for a Cabinet position) in a head-to-head race, but it would be quite a lot of fun to watch.

Perhaps not as much fun, however, as the Democratic primary for Governor is expected to be.

Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is already running. Other possible or expected candidates include:

• Attorney General, former Governor, former Presidential candidate and former Mayor of Oakland Jerry Brown.
• U.S. Senator and former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein.
• San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom
• Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
• U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez
• U.S. Rep. Hilda Solis

And those are just the Democrats. On the GOP side, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is expected to run, and we can only hope that Conservative Icon Tom McClintock might get into the race, whether or not he wins in the House.

Speaking of the House, there probably won't be too many top-tier races to begin with, but as we saw this year, there are a number of California districts where upsets are plausible. Among them:

CA-03, where Republican Dan "the Sacramento '49er" Lungren received under 50% of the vote in 2008.
CA-04, where we still don't know who the next Representative will be (though it's not looking good for Democrat Charlie Brown).
CA-26, where incumbent Republican David Drier pulled just 53% in 2008
CA-44, where Democrat Bill Hedrick nearly shocked the world by pulling off a stunning upset of Republican Ken Calvert, in a race no one saw coming.
CA-45, a moderately Republican district and home of Democrat Mary Bono Mack.
CA-46, where Republican Dana Rohrabacher got just 53% against Democrat Debbie Cook this year.

Meanwhile, it's likely Republicans will take another crack at Jerry McNerney in CA-11. It's likely neither party will gain any House seats in California in 2010, but you never know.

Colorado

Incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter and Senator Ken Salazar look pretty good for reelection. Ritter may actually face Tom Tancredo, a potential candidacy which has "Epic Fail" written all over it.

Salazar could draw a decent opponent, like Secretary of State (and Congressman-elect) Mike Coffman. He could also be nominated Secretary of the Interior, and while I would much prefer...well, anyone else, it would enable Ritter to potentially replace him with a more progressive Democrat.

In the House, Democrats are out of targets, as they now control five of seven House seats. The most vulnerable incumbent Democrats are freshman Rep.-elect Betsy Markey in CO-04, and John Salazar in CO-03.

Salazar has now won three elections and is pretty well entrenched, but Markey has yet to beat someone not woefully unpopular, like vanquished Rep. Marilyn Musgrave. It's an R+8.5 district, so Markey will have a big target on her back. Republicans will certainly be gunning after this one.

Connecticut

Chris Dodd is up for reelection. There's one Republican who can beat him - popular Governor Jodi Rell. As long as Rell doesn't run, Dodd is completely safe. He could win if she does run, but the race would instantly be one of the most hotly contested and closely watched in the country.

If Dodd runs for governor, see above. Assuming he and Rell both run for reelection to their respective offices, Dodd is safe, and Rell is basically safe. State attorney general Richard Blumenthal - who has kicked around the idea of running for Governor or Senate for most of his twenty years in the AG's office - would be a very, very strong candidate, but even he might not have the mojo to take out Jodi Rell. And, of course, he would have to actually run, instead of thinking about it and deciding not to.

Two-term Reps. Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney both won convincingly in their bids for reeelection, and ought to be in good shape. The race to watch is in the Fourth District, where freshman Rep.-elect Jim Himes will face some kind of challenge - perhaps from State Sen. John McKinney, son of the district's former Representative Stewart McKinney.

Delaware

The action here will revolve around the special election for Joe Biden's seat. Whoever is appointed to fill it, there will be an election in 2010. The best Republican for the race is Congressman and former Governor Michael Castle...but he'll be 71 in 2010, and has health problems as it is.

Castle may even retire, which would mean a likely House pickup for Democrats.