How McCain helps Obama

Remember the CW after New Hampshire? It went like this: Obama was poised to win the state big. But thanks to the poll numbers and the post-Iowa premature coronation of Obama, independent voters conflicted between McCain and Obama decided to switch their vote to the Republican contest. If the Democratic nomination was already decided, they apparently reasoned, why not vote for the other guy we liked?

Well, that decision had far ranging effects on the race. An Obama victory would've likely shortened the Democratic contest. A McCain loss would've crushed him. But that's said and done. Let's look at the future:

Upcoming contests with open primaries and caucuses: Guam, Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, Ohio, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Wyoming.

Of these, Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio appear to be the three big battles. In fact, the nomination might very well hinge on these three contests. Now with McCain in seeming firm control of his nomination, and with independents able to choose which ballot to cast, there is no impetus for them to go GOP while they have a clear Democratic favorite. This becomes a huge advantage for Obama. I expect Obama to win Wisconsin by double digits, but Texas and Ohio will be big. (The other states on that list should be fairly easy Obama wins.)

Upcoming contests with closed primaries or caucuses: District of Columbia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Dakota and West Virginia.

The big prize here is Pennsylvania, if this thing gets there. A Clinton loss in Ohio and Texas, after losing all of February, would make it very hard for her to carry on. And even with Pennsylvania, there aren't many other contests here that might be favorable to her. Kentucky? Puerto Rico? West Virginia? That about does it.

So there's an irony here -- as much as we've been rooting for Huckabee to keep the GOP contest alive, fact is that McCain's apparent victory will be a huge help in Obama's efforts to lock up his own nomination.

I've always expected Obama to win this thing, from before Obama jumped in (even though my rationale for that belief has evolved over the past year). I'm now extra convinced that he'll pull it off.

Update: A state committeeman in Wyoming writes:

You've listed Wyoming as a state with an "Open Caucus." To help us avoid chaos and disappointment on Wyoming's March 8 day of decision, please let your readers know that this isn't the case.

If people shows up to vote on March 8, we'll have to turn them away unless they they have already registered as Democrats by February 22. Our state party rules say you have to be a registered Democrat 15 days before our March 8 County Conventions in order to be able to vote at the conventions.

Anyone wanting to vote for Clinton or Obama or someone else in a Wyoming County Convention should check with the County Clerk's office by February 22 to see if they are registered Democrats.

And Beware -- people who skipped voting in the 2006 midterm congressional elections will find that their names have been purged and so they'll have to reregister as Democrats.

Update II: North Carolina is also an open primary -- unaffiliated voters have to request a Democratic ballot, but they can do so.