Last week I talked about how there was a historical similarity between Democratic presidential contender, Barack Obama, and the late former Liberal Party star and Canadian Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau. I’ve been on this Canadian history and politics kick, and have come to realize really we "south of the border" are doing ourselves a disservice basically ignoring our neighbors to the North. Looking at Canada, in many ways America is going through what they went through. So perhaps it is prudent to look at "the Great White North." It’s with this that I want to look at the other side of the aisle this week, the Republicans. Today, it seems the GOP is going where the conservative movement in Canada was going through back in 1993.
Been there, done that
The possibility of one of the two mainstream political blocs breaking up is nothing new. A couple years back Jon Stewart co-authored a book that had the Democratic Party in some political grave yard. Indeed, there was talk of Howard Dean, prior of becoming DNC chairman, of forming some new progressive party. Conservatives and other like-minded folks seemed to like to split from their allies as well. In 1980 we had John Anderson, and in 1992 and ’96 we had Ross Perot. What’s interesting, at least on the American conservative side, was that the last possibly major defection within their wings came with the formation of the Reform Party (not, for our Canadian readers, to be confused with the political organization that would later become the Canadian Alliance).
When we saw the formation of parties like the Constitution Party or the Reform Party, the only life those wings had on the conservative falcon, was some star like Pat Buchanan joining them. But to be honest, these "fringe" parties never really had a chance in taking the traditionalist trophy from the Republican Party. That was, well until now, my friends, as perhaps for the first time the GOP could go the way of their northern brethren or even the Whigs!
The similarities of the situation the GOP finds themselves in right now and that of the Progressive Conservatives is simply amazing. Back in 1993, the PC was coming off the Brian Mulroney government, which if you’re looking for a point of reference, could be the Canadians’ version of Reagan or Thatcher. Now the Progressive Conservatives had also built up a grand coalition made up of Quebec nationalists, free traders/Bay Street crowd, alienated Western Canadians, Red Tories, traditionalists, and I’m probably forgetting one or two more groups but I hope you get the idea. This is no different than the Republicans of today. The Grand Ol’ Party is made up of the Wall Street crowd, the Evangelicals, the paleo-conservatives, the neo-Conservatives/Uncle Sam as the Policeman of the World, and the old Rockefeller "Liberal" Republicans (now commonly known as RINOs, Republicans In Name Only).
Now the situation faced by the Progressive Conservatives in 1993 brought that coalition to a breaking point. Tell me if you can spot what I’m going to say to what’s happening to the PC and the GOP of today. First off, Canada was in a horrible economic situation, and the government’s fiscal budget was an utter disaster. The Loonie (the nick name of the Canadian Dollar) had lost about half its value by the end of the Mulroney government, eventually reaching a low of $. 65 USD (ok, that occurred afterwards, but I believe it’s a side effect of the Mulroney mess). Anyways, the economy was facing high unemployment and to top that, the government introduced tax policies that most at the time hated (a national sales tax).
The PC tent faced even more strain when one of its regional partners, the western Canadians decided that basically the party was catering more to the eastern crowd. The result was that come the ’93 election, the bolted towards their own party called the Reform Party of Canada, which would later become the Canadian Alliance. On the other side of the nation, the Progressive Conservatives’ Quebec partners were saying ‘non’ to the party even though the Mulroney government tried to conform to their demands of autonomy when it came to drafting a federal constitution. But the Parti Quebecois saw the handwriting on the wall and decided that it was time for a federal political organization to represent Quebec in Ottawa; this was basically a play on the hope that the new Bloc Quebecois would be able to push for eventual separation of the French-speaking province from the rest of the Confederation.
On the 1993 General Election, the Progressive Conservatives faced the worst loss it had ever faced. Just imagine if in 1994, the Democrats in the Congress lost all but 2 members in both chambers. Yeah, it was that big of a defeat. When push came to shove, the various factions of the Progressive Conservatives failed to show up to support the party, but instead voted for their own interests. Eventually, the party would be a shell of its former self and in 2002 merge with it’s western competitor to form the Conservative Party of Canada. But from that massive defeat until recently, the Liberal Party saw its biggest hold on government since Trudeau. This, I suspect will also happen to the Democrats.
Reagan’s Coalition Starts to Coalesce Elsewhere
At first I thought the idea of the Republicans disappearing as ludicrous. The two-party system we have now is so propped up by special interests, that the there is no way they would allow a situation to arise where they couldn’t hedge their bets. But life, particularly political life, is can sometimes be the theatre of the unexpected. They have found themselves in a predicament with the candidates who are trying to represent that party.
Every party has that group of voters that it panders to every election cycle, but ignores for the most part during the rest of the term. For the Republicans, that have to be the Christian Evangelicals, and outside events like that with Terri Shiavo, the GOP really doesn’t do much for the Pat Robertson crowd. The Evangelicals basically want the republic to be as close to a theocracy as they can get it. The 10 Commandments everywhere and Jesus promoted more than George Washington.
They are disappointed in the fact that despite the GOP controlling the Congress for over a decade and also the White House for seven years, that abortion is still legal. They went along with the neo-Conservatives because for the most part actually believe that the Second Gulf War would hasten that final biblical conflict of Armageddon. The war didn’t produce that final religious military conflict, nor did the Administration end abortion or outlaw homosexuality. Talking to these folks, there’s a laundry list of disappointment from them. Their final stand was the promotion of Governor and pastor, Mike Huckabee.
Wall Street conservatives, like Larry Kudlow and Steve Forbes and their friends, profited handsomely from the loose trade deals and tax cuts. The war boosted the margins of petrol companies like Exxon-Mobil, and the military industrial complex. Yet there is still disappointment, as these folks have gone against classic Street rules of only staying a bear or a bull but not a big. But oink oink is really what they squeal as they have shown their displeasure at the fact that the tax cuts aren’t perminant and that more money isn’t coming their way in government deals, let alone free trade scams. Many on the street have also bemoaned that Washington isn’t doing enough to cover the piggy gamblers’ asses when things like mortgage securities go sour. Many in the Wall Street conservative circles are also upset at the spending and lack of fiscal discipline, they know that this may cause them to lose their tax bennies down the road.
No one really has to guess as to why the paleo conservatives are upset. For them, everything from the Medicare Prescription drug plan to what they see as amnesty for illegal aliens, has got them in an uproar. For this crowd, Iraq was a massive disappointment as it betrayed their isolationist foundations. Secondly, they believed in fiscal responsibility and protectionism. None of this has occurred under the Bush Administration. They were originally sold W as Old School, but it turned out he wasn’t even good at being new school.
For the neo-Cons, it’s simple, really. The year is 2008, and America hasn’t even taken Tehran, let alone invaded the country. It was supposed to be Pax Americana, with new satellites from the Israeli protected buffer zone once known as Syria, to petro-colonies in Baghdad, Baluchistan, Kurdistan, and Tehran. Yes, McCain would most likely go along with what they want, but many now think that America basically shot it’s military wad in Iraq and that’s really all they are gonna get.
Talk radio and conservative authors, basically the Republicans’ propaganda wing, has turned against the presumptive nomination of McCain. For folks like Limbaugh, it had to be Mitt Romney. Why not Huckabee? Isn’t he a traditionalist who favors Creationism versus rational science? Yes, but Mike decided to play against the Wall Street crowd, which to many of these wealthy radio talk show hosts is a big no no. Rule number 1 in GOP circles, NEVER GO AGAINST THE MONEY!
Shattering the base
I do believe that should McCain win or lose, the old conservative base is now tired of the GOP establishment. The conservatives may on November vote, but most will sit out. Talk of rebuilding that corrupt carcass of a political party is often met with skepticism. History has basically repeated itself.
The basic Evangelical voter in the GOP has now opened their eyes and is tired of feeling used. Pastors and other religious folks are now openly speaking about leaving the Republican Party if McCain is the nominee. They want a Christian-based party and the various factions of the Religious Reich are now for the first time putting aside any personal egos to try and accomplish this if they see the Republicans turning "left" on them.
Paleo-conservatives saw an interesting turn of events last week. While showing neo-con tendacies like the want to attack Iran, Michael Savage (real name Michael Weiner)has become one of their icons. With 22 million listeners, the man isn’t ignored by many on the Right. But last week, Savage announced that he was going to get whom he can within concervative circles to form a "nationalist" third party come November. Grant you, other major conservatives initiated similar enterprises. But Savage has already the informal backing of many "lieutenants" of the footsoldiers of the conservative base.
The Republican Party won't disappear and perhaps there will still be a 'con' element to it. But their base is damaged, if not irrecoverable. We could see the GOP as a regional party, or we could see several "baby GOPs" form in its place. As American liberals, especially as Democrats, this is really a cause of celebration. We could enjoy a new golden age of progressive governance. The Liberal Party of Canada achieved this for over a decade. Yet, we must still be on our guard. Our conservative enemies will yearn to retake the White House and the Congress. If the GOP shatters, then by the time these wolves do manage to form a new pact, they will be hungry and ruthless. Yes, we are moving forward, but we must be on guard for the wolves at the door.