Are democrats committing suicide with Obama?

I want a winner in 2008. In my opinion, democrats are getting caught up in the hype created by media about Obama and in effect committing suicide with him as the nominee in general. I still think Hillary Clinton inspite of the baggage would be the best nominee against John McCain.

This is my honest assessment and these are my concerns.

Let me start with some high-level general concerns about Obama.

1. Obama is not winning with traditional democrats -Obama arrogantly says 'He will get Hillary's votes but she can't get his voters'. I think the opposite is true. But for some exceptions, he is not winning with traditional democrats like lower and middle class white voters. I am afraid they will be attracted to John McCain in general. The reasons could be because of almost certain Karl Rove style race baiting campaign and Obama will be made to look like light weight and inexperienced.

2. Independents and young voters can be unpredictable in general - Once Republicans start pounding on 'where is the beef' argument against Obama, independents that have a history of supporting John McCain will start deserting Obama. Independents are always center right in their voting patterns. If some unexpected event happens before now and general, they can change their vote to McCain in a minute. I am not conveinced that they will vote for Obama in general. Young voters can be quite unpredictable in their voting patterns. It's hard for Obama to keep the excitement up with them for so long. Once media starts vetting Obama; you never know what will happen with an undefined and unknown candidate.

3. At some point close to general, Americans might sit back and think 'Are we ready for this much change' by giving the presidency to Obama - This will happen with John McCain as Republican nominee. With some body else; I am not sure if Americans will re-visit this issue. At some point Obama's aura will fade and people will start paying attention to the experience and record. McCain is unique as he is always regarded as a maverick and media loves him.

Here are some tactical disadvantages Obama might have against McCain.

1. Republicans will most definitely play War Hero Vs Obama - I am sure even Obama's campaign would cede on this issue. In 2000, McCain didn't play his Vietnam days but this time he is going for the over-kill on this issue. It will get even more notice in general Vs Obama.

2. National Security Vs Obama - Just imagine Obama debating McCain on the stage about national security. I am afraid Obama will be short on gravitas and presence against McCain. This is where the old Vs young look could play. I can imagine McCain telling Obama that while I am fighting in Vietnam; you are enjoying life as a teenager. Some thing to that effect.

3. Experience Vs Inexperience - Remember this is general election. This is not democratic primary where Clinton has a problem on this issue with Iraq vote. McCain will surely find a way to highlight Obama's inexperience with swing voters (Independents).

4. Republicans will expose Obama as just lofty talk and no substance. Where's the beef argument - I am still puzzled that Hillary Clinton didn't seize on this. This shows the ineptness of her campaign. But Republicans will surely hammer on this to minimize Obama's stregths.

5. McCain would be relatively strong with Hispanics because of the immigration bill than any other Republican - Hispanics are not voting for Obama even in democratic primary. This could be a African American Vs Hispanic rivalry issue in play for general but I am not sure 100%. In any case Hispanics would be a problem for Obama.

6. Media loves John McCain - I am afraid the same media singing Obama's praises in primary will start vetting Obama in a serious way against McCain. I still think Rezko thing is not over yet. Bush will be in power and his justice department will most certainly unearth more dirt and keep the media talking about Obama Rezko story.

7. Karl Rove style dirty, race baiting campaign by Republicans - There is not a single negative AD against Obama so far. If you accuse Bill Clinton of race baiting campaign, just wait to see what Republicans will do. They are the experts of negative campaigns.