Daily Kos

"Worst Case" Delegate Scenario for OH, PA, TX

Fri Feb 15, 2008 at 02:47:42 PM PDT

In this diary, I will look at what I consider to be the worst case delegate counts for Obama in the states of Ohio and Pennsylvania.  What I mean by worst case here is that a reasonable worst case, I am not including possibilities like the implosion of the Obama campaign.
Flip over to the other side.

I make a couple assumptions in this diary:

  1. Obama will get at least 75-80% of the black vote
  1. Obama will get at least 15% in any district, he will not be not viable anywhere.

I am assuming as well that the final percentages will be about C-60 O-40, so about a 20% win for Clinton.

So here it goes, my worst case predictions by district:

OH-1  C-2 O-2
OH-2  C-3 O-1
OH-3  C-3 O-2
OH-4  C-3 O-1
OH-5  C-3 O-1
OH-6  C-4 O-1
OH-7  C-3 O-1
OH-8  C-3 O-1
OH-9  C-3 O-3
OH-10 C-4 O-2
OH-11 C-3 O-5
OH-12 C-3 O-2
OH-13 C-3 O-3
OH-14 C-4 O-2
OH-15 C-2 O-2
OH-16 C-4 O-1
OH-17 C-4 O-3
OH-18 C-4 O-1

At large: C-19 O-12
PLEO: C-11 O-7

Total Ohio: C-88 O-53

Pennsylvania:
PA-1  C-3 O-4
PA-2  C-3 O-6
PA-3  C-4 O-1
PA-4  C-4 O-1
PA-5  C-2 O-2
PA-6  C-3 O-3
PA-7  C-4 O-3
PA-8  C-4 O-3
PA-9  C-2 O-1
PA-10 C-3 O-1
PA-11 C-4 O-1
PA-12 C-4 O-1
PA-13 C-4 O-3
PA-14 C-4 O-3
PA-15 C-3 O-2
PA-16 C-4 O-1
PA-17 C-3 O-1
PA-18 C-4 O-1
PA-19 C-3 O-1

At large: C-21 O-14
PLEO: C-12 O-8

Total Penn: C-98 O-61

Total in these two states in a 72 edge in delegates.

Clinton can wipe out most of Obama's lead in pledged delegates if this scenario were to hold, and I'll do a similar thing for Texas later.  Now granted, some of these picks are going to be tough, for example, Obama will likely win PA-14.

This should be motivation to prevent this from happening.

Tags: President, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Ohio, Pennsylvania, 2008 Election, Primaries (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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