Revisiting the Broder Bounce

As Atrios notes, it's been a year.

Bush Regains His Footing

By David S. Broder
Friday, February 16, 2007; A23

It may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case.

The famous Broder Bounce was covered here in May 2007. A "Broder Bounce" is a predicted improvement in poll standing that does not materialize or reach statistical significance. A "broder bounce" is related to the "CNN bounce"  (a non-significant poll standing improvement of one point ), though the latter differs by not having been predicted beforehand. But, it takes a full year to appreciate just how awesome the Broder Bounce really was.

Although the pollster.com graph is through 12/09/07, the RCP average today still has Bush at 33%. By the way, Bush's approval was 29% on January 13, 2007, and is now at 27%, according to the latest CBS news poll (.pdf) and 32% in 2/07 and 30% in 2/08 via Ap-Ipsos (.pdf).

That's one helluva political comeback.

Update [2008-2-17 20:1:1 by DemFromCT]: Chart updated; newest version of original background chart will be on www.pollster.com tomorrow (used with permission).