Daily Kos

Obama down 7 in OH according to internal poll

Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 06:49:42 PM PDT

Buckeye State Blog has some leaked poll numbers from the Obama campaign showing him down only 7 points in Ohio! BSB couldn't provide any further detail on this except to say that movement in the Q-Poll and Rasmussen survey had already shown serious movement for Obama.

If Obama has a good showing tomorrow in Wisconsin and Hawaii - winning WI by 8 points and HI by at least 10 or 12, he will have ten in a row and major momentum heading into March 4. We've already seen polling showing Texas virtually tied; with the bizarre delegate apportionment system there Obama would come out ahead in the delegate count. That means the only way for Hillary Clinton to make up major ground on March 4 is to win Ohio big. The demographics are strong for Hillary there, but they seem to be weakening for her after Obama's inroads among blue collar Catholics in Maryland. Hopefully Wisconsin will show more erosion of support for Clinton among those voters as well.

Either way, a 7 point deficit is a great place for Obama to be. This is an internal poll so it could be "off" a bit. But considering movement in the national numbers it could very well be accurate too. In fact, he can tour the state at length and whittle that lead down to zero by March 4. If he flat-out wins OH or TX Hillary will have to consider bowing out. If he wins BOTH OH and TX then the race will be effectively over.

Tags: Barack Obama, Ohio (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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