Wind, Solar, Efficiency: McCain To Miss the Trifecta?

Bush famously laughed off his first years in office (recession, war, terrorist disaster) with the line "I hit the trifecta."  Now, McCain is working on his own trifecta.

Here's the background: last year, a majority of both Houses voted to roll back subsidies for Big Oil and extend and increase them for efficiency, solar, wind and other renewables.  However, the Senate fell one vote short of ending a filibuster.  McCain missed the vote-- the only one to do so-- and never announced how he would have voted.

Earlier this year, the Dems tried again as part of the fiscal stimulus plan.  Again, despite majorities in both Houses the Senate fell one vote short of ending a filibuster.  Again, McCain was the only one to miss the vote.  Again, he never announced how he would have voted.

He was in a ticklish position: alienate his base by voting against oil subsidies, or most of the nation by voting against renewables?

The Dems are now trying for a third time.  Subsidizing solar, wind and efficiency (instead of oil) remains a no-brainer.  But its difficult not to also wonder whether McCain will miss the trifecta.

As a reminder, According to the IPCC, Climate Change threatens the water supply of over a billion (with a b) people, and the food supply of 250 million.  Of course emissions are growing much faster than the IPCC's worst case scenario, and reality is running ahead of their predictions.

In this situation, the very least the government can reasonably do would be to stop all subsidies for carbon-intensive energy sources, massively increase subsidies for low-carbon sources, like wind and solar, and promote energy efficiency through subsidies.

Strike One
The Dems tried to do this back in December.  The Bill easily cleared the House, and moved on to the Senate.  One by one a few GOP Senators indicated an intention to vote FOR the bill.  The Dem Senators running for President all returned to Washington.  By the day before the vote, We started calling our Senators after hearing we were ONE vote short.

We remained one vote short.  By a vote of 59-40 (roll call), the Senate failed to end a filibuster.  McCain didn't vote, since he was off riding the straight talk express somewhere.  Immediately after the vote, I called his office to ask how he would have voted (would he alienate his base?  or the right wing?)  The staff member I spoke to had no idea what the straight-talking Senator would have done.

Curiously, Sen Reid did not hold the vote open for long.  I have no idea why he didn't force McCain to take a position one way or the other.

Strike Two
The Dems tried again last month to extend the subsidies as part of the fiscal stimulus bill.  Again, the vote was 59-40 to end the filibuster and pass the bill (roll call; note Reid temporarily switched sides for parliamentary reasons), and again McCain was the only one to abstain.  But this time there was a twist:

The Arizona senator's decision to miss the vote appeared to come at the last minute, after his plane had landed at Dulles International Airport outside Washington just before the proceedings opened on the Senate floor.

Then, he (or perhaps a senior staff member) instructed his staff to lie about what happened.

McCain's Dilemna:  On the one hand...

A Siegel has described at length McCain's positions (and it is plural) on Global Warming.  On the one hand, he's on the record as favoring solar, wind and renewables to fight global warming (my emphasis).

   We need to do green technologies. Let me put it this way to you. Suppose I’m wrong, there’s no such thing as climate change, we adopt green technologies. Then we’ve just left our kids a better world. Suppose I am right and we do nothing? Then what kind of planet have we handed to our children? I’ve been involved in this effort for many years. And we’ve got to act. And unfortunately, we have not acted either as a federal government or a Congress.

<snip>

   Katie Couric: Why has it taken so long, Senator?

   McCain: Special interests. It’s the special interests. It’s the utility companies and the petroleum companies and other special interests. They’re the ones that have blocked progress in the Congress of the United States and the administration. That’s a little straight talk.

Pretty impressive straight talk for someone with a zero environmental rating from the League of Conservation Voters.

On the other hand
But voting for this bill would mean removing all those subsidies for "the petroleum companies and other special interests."  And he wouldn't want to do that.

Furthermore, his base (you know, all those anti-subsidy free-marketers) really like the idea of subsidizing Big Oil (even though, as Jerome has repeatedly noted, oil companies give more money to shareholders than they spend on searching for oil).

Missing The Trifecta?
As recently noted by DevilsTower, the House could soon pass the Bill a third time.  I can't wait.  Mostly, I want those solar and wind subsidies restored-- at a time when Global Warming news keeps getting worse, we need those subsidies to help grow infant industries.

We do not need oil subsidies when oil costs $100/barrel.

If it comes down to another filibuster, let's hope Reid holds the vote open long enough for him to squirm.  Make him decide to be the guy who ended subsidies for solar and wind, and increased them for greedy oil companies.  Or make him be the one to "betray" his Republican base-- and prove that if you want real progress on these issues, you'd better have a Democrat in the White House.

Or let him miss the trifecta.

Call, call, call
Yes, I know y'all are busy making calls for Obama or Clinton.  But if you're less involved in that, or think the race is wrapping up, or would rather focus beyond the primaries, please consider doing what you can to help this Bill.

It will likely pass the House.  The Senate will be the hard part.  I'd hate to see one of the GOP Senators who voted for it, change his mind to make McCain's position a bit less untenable.  I'd love to see one of the GOP Senators who voted against it change his mind; this would either draw a Presidential veto, forcing McCain to vote on whether to override Bush, or it would hand the Dems a significant victory.

So if you have a GOP Senator, please call him or her to try to get this Bill passed.