My Totally Unfounded Super Tuesday Outlook II [Updated]

My first diary on this was on Wednesday.

24 Democratic primaries and caucuses take place on Feb. 5: 22 state primaries and 1 other primary (American Samoa).

Here is my pathetic and completely pulled-out-of-my-rear (well, not completely) view of how Super Tuesday is shaping up as of today:

Just for reference, here is how voters broke in the final week in the 4 contests of meaning so far:

Iowa
Obama - 30%
Clinton - 23%
Others - 47%

New Hampshire
Obama - 38%
Clinton - 35%
Others - 27%

Nevada
Obama - 42%
Clinton - 41%
Others - 17%

South Carolina
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 20%
Others - 28%

So the thing to note is that, except for South Carolina, Obama did slightly better than Clinton in drawing in voters in the final week - but not considerably better.  The only question is whether South Carolina is a trend of things to come or the outliar.

Of course, added to this the question of who Edward's supporters would go for, and I didn't see that question asked in any of the 4 exit polls above (that I saw).  In any case, let's get to the Super Tuesday states:

California
primary
370 pledged delegates, 441 total delegates

Average of Last 10 polls:

Clinton - 43%
Obama - 35%
Others + Undecided - 22%

Comment: The good news for Clinton here is that she has a double-digit lead, and the average lead has held steady since Wednesday.  The bad news for her is that nearly a quarter of all voters are either undecided or are voting for candidates who are now out of the race, and the overall trend is in Obama's favor.

Comment: Things are falling apart really fast here for Clinton with her lead now within single digits.

My week-out projection: I think California will be within single digits, but it just doesn't look like Obama's momentum will be enough to actually win the state to me.

My week-out projection: Well, this has changed since I started my diary.  This is a flip, from a Clinton win to a slight Obama win.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 178, Obama 192
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 178, Obama 192

New York
primary
232 pledged delegates, 280 total delegates

Average of Last 10 polls:

Clinton - 51%
Obama - 31%
Others + Undecided - 18%

Comments: Clinton hasn't dropped since Wednesday, but Obama has gained 4 points in the average since then.

My week-out prediction: Clinton should still win with double digits, but it may only be in the teens and not in the 20s, making this state a little closer than some people may have thought.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 130, Obama 102
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 308, Obama 294

Illinois
primary
153 pledged delegates, 185 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Obama - 54%
Clinton - 28%
Others + Undecided - 18%

Comments: Just like New York, this is a candidate's home state and Obama should roll.  Undecideds seem to be splitting pretty evenly since Wednesday.

My week-out prediction: Obama probably wins with something between 60% and 65%.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 58, Obama 95
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 366, Obama 389

New Jersey
primary
107 pledged delegates, 127 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 47%
Obama - 32%
Others + Undecided - 21%

Comment: Clinton still maintains a 15% lead, but that's 3% lower than just this past Wednesday, and one recent poll has this race within single digits.

My week-out prediction: I think Clinton still wins, but there is a good chance it's only in the single digits.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 59, Obama 48
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 425, Obama 437

Massachusetts
primary
93 pledged delegates, 121 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 49%
Obama - 26%
Others + Undecided - 25%

Comment: The plus for Clinton is her lead is 23%.  The bad thing for her is that it's gone down by about 5%, and unlike previous states, she's actually lost some ground in her own percentage here as well.  Also, the larger-sample (and usually reliable) Rasmussen has this race within single digits.

My week-out prediction: I think this state will probably go about 51/49 for whomever wins, and delegates pretty much split down the middle.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 46, Obama 47
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 471, Obama 484

Georgia
primary
87 pledged delegates, 104 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Obama - 43%
Clinton - 36%
Others + Undecided - 21%

Comment: This should be another state that trends Obama, and his lead as widened by 2% since Wednesday.  Also, the two most recent polls have Obama up by double digits.

My week-out prediction: Obama wins easily, quite possibly by double digits.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 38, Obama 49
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 509, Obama 533

Minnesota
caucus
72 pledged delegates, 88 total delegates

Only one poll on this race:

Clinton - 40%
Obama - 33%
Others + Undecided - 27

Comment: It's very difficult to guess what will happen here with only one poll.

My week-out prediction: Well, I'll go the weeny safe route and say Clinton and Obama basically stay even in this state.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 26, Obama 26
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 535, Obama 559

Missouri
primary
72 pledged delegates, 88 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 45%
Obama - 38%
Others + Undecided - 17%

Comment: Obama is gaining rapidly here with two recent polls having Obama within the margin of error.

My week-out prediction: I think this is my first flip from Wednesday, switching this from a Clinton 55/45 win to an Obama win between 50% and 55%.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 34, Obama 38
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 569, Obama 597

Tennessee
primary
68 pledged delegates, 85 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 44%
Obama - 29%
Others + Undecided - 27%

Comment: Obama is gaining here, but is it enough?  Polls are kind of all over the place here.  Small sample sizes aren't helping.

My week-out prediction: Clinton wins. It's just a matter of whether by single or double digits.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 37, Obama 31
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 606, Obama 628

Arizona
primary
56 pledged delegates, 67 total delegates

Only 3 January polls:

Clinton - 42%
Obama - 32%
Others + Undecided - 26%

Comments: The average still has Clinton up by 10.  The latest poll has this race within 2

My week-out prediction: This one is going to be close.  I think whoever wins wins by just a few percentage points.  I gotta think Obama is the odds-on favorite though.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 27, Obama 29
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 633, Obama 657

Colorado
caucus
55 pledged delegates, 71 total delegates

Only a single January poll:

Obama - 34%
Clinton - 32%
Others + Undecided - 34%

Comments: Another caucus, this one closed, which should help Clinton a little bit.

My week-out prediction: Since it's closed, I'll split the undecideds more evenly and say Obama wins with between 50% and 55%.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 26, Obama 29
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 659, Obama 686

Alabama
primary
52 pledged delegates, 60 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 38%
Obama - 36%
Others + Undecided - 26%

Comments:  Obama has the huge mo.

My week-out prediction: Another flip from Clinton wins barely to Obama wins pretty solidly.  Maybe by double digits.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 23, Obama 29
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 682, Obama 715

Connecticut
primary
48 pledged delegates, 61 total delegates

Average of January polls:

Clinton - 43%
Obama - 38%
Others + Undecided - 19%

Comments: Polls are absolutely all over the place here.

My week-out prediction:  Gotta think the momentum gives this to Obama.

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 21, Obama 27
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 703, Obama 742

Oklahoma
primary
38 pledged delegates, 47 total delegates

Gotta love having only 3 polls:

Clinton - 43%
Obama - 18%
Others + Undecided - 39%

Comments: Unfortunately, there are no Edward-less polls.  The fact that Obama was 3rd when Edwards in the race can't be good for Obama.

My week-out prediction: Clinton rolls with at least 60%

Delegates awarded here: Clinton 24, Obama 14
Total rough delegate estimate so far: Clinton 727, Obama 756

Other States

Things start to get more guesswork for most of the other states from here, so I'll just put my best guess at delegate counts for them:

Arkansas - Clinton 23, Obama 12
Kansas - Obama 18, Clinton 14
New Mexico - Clinton 14, Obama 12
Utah - Clinton 13, Obama 10
Idaho - Obama 11, Clinton 7
Delaware - Clinton 7, Obama 8
Alaska - Clinton 5, Obama 8
North Dakota - Obama 7, Clinton 6
American Samoa - Clinton 2, Obama 1

That makes my guess at the Super Tuesday Delegates counts:

Clinton: 818
Obama: 843

And makes the total delegates won (including super delegates) after Feb. 5:

Clinton: 1053
Obama: 999

And of course, there are 53 of Edwards delegates now still outstanding.

My delegate prediction has narrowed since Wednesday, going from 877-810 for Clinton to 847-825 for Clinton.  I think the key here is whether Obama out performs expectations in 3 of the 4 biggest states - California, New York, and New Jersey.

Well, due to the recent change in California, my Super Tuesday winner has flipped form Clinton to Obama, overall.  If his momentum keeps going, it could get even bigger.