Obama Passes 50% in Intrade for First Time (aside from briefly after Iowa)

(Cross posted at BareNaked Pundits)

It's Super Tuesday, and I admit it... I'm dying for some exit polls.  

In the past, we've usually seen some start to leak before the polls closed.  Often as early as 1pm.  But as we call know, ever since the 2004 debacle, when exit polls showed Kerry winning, it's become pretty much impossible to get early ones, even crappy ones.

Apparently, there's a much tighter rein on them these days.

But if you're into reading tea leaves, then you might want to check out Intrade. For those not familiar, it's a market where you can bet on the outcome of elections. For the first time in the entire election cycle, Intrade traders are now giving Barack Obama a higher chance of winning than Hillary Clinton.  Just slightly higher -- 52.9% vs 47.9% as of 5:26 pm -- but higher nonetheless.

This switcheroo just happened about 2 hours ago.  Maybe evidence of betting by some who really did get early evidence of exit polls?  Perhaps.  Or perhaps just a coincidence.

Now, arguably, you can only put so much credence on these things, since they're still just predictive markets.  And God knows, they've been wrong in the past.  Still though, it's real people putting up real money.   And... that seems a lot more predictive to me than just the usual pontification.

[UPDATE: As enarjay rightfully pointed out, Obama was indeed up over 50% after Iowa.  Thanks, good catch!]