Poll: Clinton Would Tie McCain, Obama Would Defeat Him

According to a new Time poll released today, Obama would beat McCain by seven points were the election held today, and Hillary would tie him:

Obama captured 48% of the vote in the theoretical match-up against McCain's 41%, the TIME poll reported, while Clinton and McCain would deadlock at 46% of the vote each. Put another way, McCain looks at the moment to have a narrowly better chance of beating the New York Senator than he does the relative newcomer from Illinois.

The difference, says Mark Schulman, CEO of Abt SRBI, which conducted the poll for TIME, is that "independents tilt toward McCain when he is matched up against Clinton But they tilt toward Obama when he is matched up against the Illinois Senator." Independents, added Schulman, "are a key battleground."

For much of the year, Democrats have enjoyed a wide margin over any Republican rival in theoretical match-ups. Those margins have begun to shrink in recent weeks.

The poll also reports that Democratic voters favor Clinton over Obama, 48/42, and more Hillary voters prefer Obama to be named her vice presidential choice than vice versa.