Rhode Island: Clinton's New England Firewall

How did Rhode Island get in the position of being the Clinton firewall next Tuesday? With +/- 5%, WPRI/Fleming and Associates has polled RI most recently:

Clinton Obama Undecided
49      40    11    Feb. 24-27

Rhode Island has been Clinton country for a long time. A local contact reminds me that in 1996 she drew huge crowds in Pawtucket (home of the Red Sox farm team) at a time she was toxic elsewhere. A NY Times story today  notes:

With its many working-class whites, women and retirees, Rhode Island is friendly turf for Mrs. Clinton, who has the support of most Democratic leaders here and maintains a slight lead in the polls. But The Providence Journal reported that almost half of the 43,000 new voters who had registered here in the last year were ages 18 to 29, a demographic Mr. Obama has pursued with great success in other states.

However,

Maureen Moakley, a political science professor at the University of Rhode Island, warned that the so-called youth vote was not fail-safe for Mr. Obama because many of Rhode Island’s college students were registered in other states or at precincts far from their campus.

"Half these kids are from out of state," Professor Moakley said.  

Both candidates have made their presence known. Today's Obama rally is live blogged by Rhode Island's Future; Bill was there for Hillary on Friday.

One thing about Rhode Island, where everyone knows everyone else, and politics are taken as seriously as baseball: things may break in one direction come election day. This should be safely in the Clinton column, but a closer than expected contest will mean fighting over not just delegates but what the magical concepts of perception and momentum really mean. Assuming, of course, Texas and Ohio don't just settle things.

As for VT, the other New England state on the ballot, that's safely Obama country.