About those Republican Crossover Voters going for Hillary

So there's some speculation out there about how Obama has lost the Republican vote to Hillary Clinton over the last several contests. I have a theory on this...

This theory is two-fold. First, Republicans have finally begun to recognize the threat that Obama poses in the general. I call this the Rush effect. They recognize that their only chance to win in November is for Hillary to come out on top via stealing the nomination from Obama, thereby fracturing the Democratic Party in November. Typical Republican politics.

However, I think there's also a deeper cause. Race. I honestly believe that Republicans in Texas, Mississippi and Ohio are more likely to be uncomfortable voting for a black man than those in Iowa, New Hampshire and several other states that are voting. These are people who have suffered during the Bush years and are open to voting for a Democrat, but simply can't pull the trigger for Obama.

I should really go do the research on the other Southern states that have voted (i.e. Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia etc) to see how the Republican spread broke down, but my hunch is that Hillary has performed well amongst Republicans there, too.

And as for Ohio. I had a co-worker who grew up in PA in the heart of the rust belt, and he claimed that area was the most racist in the country. Far more racist than North Carolina, where we live now. He doesn't believe Obama has a shot in hell during the General because of this, and it's an argument we've had several times. However, I do think he's partially right about this trend, and I fully expect winning over more conservative voters to be one of Obama's biggest challenges going in to PA.

Going forward, I also expect Obama to pick up heavy independent and Republican support in Oregon, Indiana, South Dakota and Montana, states that are more educated and more open to the idea of a black man as President.

Thoughts?