How Hillary is Winning the Superdelegates

That's the path to victory for Hillary Clinton, right?  She's going to win Pennsylvania big, then use that as a springboard to sweep all the remaining contests, some by surprising margins, and that will get her close enough that she can make the argument that she's the more electable candidate, and the Superdelegates will vote for her in big numbers, securing her nomination.

How many?  Well, if she wins PA 2:1 and gets big wins everywhere, she needs 55% of the total outstanding Superdelegates.  If she does as well or better than she polls everywhere now, but doesn't do anything stunning, she needs over 65% of the Superdelegates.  Hillary is the Superdelegate candidate, they love her.  She can convince them.

But... ah.  Isn't there always a "but"?

First, let me update my numbers since Thursday.

Using the same primary source (RCP), we update the pledged count to
Obama 1415 - 1245 Clinton
And the Superdelegate count to
Obama 213 - 248 Clinton
for a total of
Obama 1628 - 1493 Clinton

Here's the first catch:
Not all the "Superdelegates" outstanding are unpledged Superdelegates.  76 of the 334 remaining are "add-on" delegates who are elected by the pledged delegates (details vary by state).  These are in a mixture of states that both have and have not yet voted, but the important note is that the candidates for these spots run on a platform of "I'm voting for X at the convention."  They're essentially pledged.  Given that, it's pretty easy to get a rough count of how they'll split, and right now it looks like Obama 43, Clinton 33, though that may shift a couple either way.  Let's re-run my first case, then.  Remember, this is "Hillary does as well as or better than polls in all the contests."

AO: O 43 - 33 C
PA: O 66 - 92 C
GU: O 2 - 2 C
NC: O 62 - 53 C
IN: O 41 - 31 C
WV: O 12 - 16 C
OR: O 29 - 23 C
KY: O 20 - 31 C
PR: O 25 - 30 C
MT: O 10 - 6 C
SD: O 9 - 6 C
Tot: Obama 319 - Clinton 323
Sum: Obama 1947 - Clinton 1816 (2025 needed)

Meaning Obama would only need 75 of the 258 remaining undeclared SDs, which is 30%.  Given the public statements of Pelosi and Richardson, I'd say that's pretty safe.  Clinton would need 209 of 258, which is clearly unattainable.

So, what can she do?  Let's examine a second scenario, which is what happens if Florida and Michigan re-enter the conversation.  Clinton's best case scenario for Florida is to just have its results stand.  It's not impossible that this happens, or that a revote would give the same margin.  Seating Michigan as it stands is pretty much impossible.  Current polling shows them roughly even in Michigan.  Let's just say, though, for fun, that Clinton gets Florida in as it stands (105 for her, 67 for Obama, 13 Edwards) and Michigan goes in by some mechanism with Clinton keeping her 55% and all the "Uncommitted" votes going to Obama (73 Clinton, 55 Obama).  This also adds a total of 5 add-ons (we'll give them all to Hillary here) and 15 Clinton and 5 Obama supers, plus 29 undeclared Supers.  Add this in to the original scenario:

Obama 1947 - 1816 Clinton
SD: Obama 5 - 20 Clinton
MI: Obama 55 - 73 Clinton
FL: Obama 67 - 105 Clinton
Sum: Obama 2074 - 2014 Clinton (2202 needed)

There would now be 287 outstanding SDs, with Obama needing 128 and Clinton needed 188, which is 45% and 66% respectively.

Remember, this is essentially the exact argument the Clinton campaign makes: we'll win Pennsylvania, compete very well everywhere else, draw close in votes, count Michigan and Florida as is, and then...

... then the Superdelegates will vote for me.

Really?  Despite a 60 pledged delegate gap

Sixty-six percent of them will overrule the pledged delegate count?

Despite what Nancy Pelosi and Bill Richardson have said?

It's possible, of course.  But is it realistic?  I mean, there's no real change between now and then, besides that we count MI/FL like Clinton says we should, and she does as well as her campaign says she will.  There's no pattern-breaking going on.  So, the superdelegates should already be lining up.

She's the superdelegate candidate, right?

Then I have one unanswered question: why isn't she getting more SDs already?  Since everyone has a slightly different count on the Supers, I think it's fair to say things like "net super count of negative seven" with a grain of salt.  But according to DemConWatch, the count on  February 10, the weekend following SuperTuesday, the count was Clinton 224, Obama 127.

Since then, nothing's really challenged her victory narrative: "I'll win all the big states."  Sure.  "Florida and Michigan will count."  Well... okay.  Let's assume they do.  "We'll find out more about Obama and he'll be more closely scrutinized."  Boy howdy.

Since then:
Clinton 24 - Obama 86

Where's even the remotest evidence that the Superdelegates are buying ANY of this argument?  They clearly are not.  And even if things GO exactly as she says, she needs to turn TWO-THIRDS of them to her side to reverse the pledged delegate count.

How is Hillary winning the Superdelegates?

She isn't.