It's a glitch.

[UPDATE #2: Disregard the calculations below.  The campaign has said, via Politico, that "the graphic is inaccurate, due to a technical glitch."  No specification on what went wrong, or what the actual donor rate is.  I am leaving this diary up for posterity and will follow up when I get more information.]

Three weeks ago, the Obama campaign reported it had received contributions from its one millionth donor in 2008.    Incredibly, that number has almost doubled in less than a month.  Sometime today, the two millionth donor to Obama for America since January 1 will contribute to the campaign.  (I emphasize donors not donations.  Certainly many of these individuals have donated multiple times.)  Over one million donors have given to Obama for America within the past month, and the rate of new donors shows no sign of slowing down.

The Obama campaign has just weathered its harshest attacks and come out with acclaim for Tuesday's speech, an enthusiastic endorsement from one of the most prominent undeclared superdelegates, and an acceleration in grassroots fundraising.  In terms of available cash, Obama has vast resources when compared to both Clinton and McCain, yet the pile of cash pales in comparison with the mobilized base who will not only donate money but also work on behalf of the campaign registering voters, engaging with friends, family, and neighbors, and producing the kind of ground operation that will be formidable in the general election.

The campaign has focused on number of donors, not amounts of money raised.  That's a good idea, in part because each donor feels counted in such a number, regardless of whether they have given $5, $2300, or any number in between.  The number of individual donors, too, shows just how much this campaign has touched average Americans.  [UPDATE FOR EXPLANATION OF WHERE THE NUMBER COMES FROM: The number of individual donors is taken from the widget on Obama's website linked to the campaign's fundraising database.  This widget was featured on the site's front page when the campaign was trying to get 500,000 donors for calendar year 2008, and kept on when the campaign was shooting for one million donors overall at the end of February.  It features real-time updates of new donors, and some of us geeky types followed the growth of the number as it reached its goals a month ago.  The widget is linked directly to the online fundraising page and automatically counts when a new donor -- not just a new donation, but a new donor -- contributes.  The fundraising page has multiple servers, so at times of great activity, constantly reloading the page with the widget may cause the numbers to jump slightly (by a few dozen) as you refresh from server to server, though it has seemed more stable this week despite incredible growth in the number of total donors.  The campaign has taken it off of the front page, yet as the counter remains linked to the fundraising database it has continued to count new donors.  

I should also clarify yet again my mistake when I published last night.  The two million figure is total number of donors to the campaign in the cycle, not just since January.  That includes 475,000 for all of calendar year 2007, over 500,000 between January 1 and March 1, 2008, and the close to one million since March 1.  I regret the error.  What that means, though, is the rate of growth in the donor base over the past three weeks is substantially more dramatic than I had previously depicted.  I am leaving the original title and text of this diary up but wanted to clarify for accuracy.]

But let's talk about the money anyway, because the money coming into this campaign is staggering.  This people-powered campaign has consistently outraised every campaign in both parties since February of 2007...and it is gaining momentum.  If each donor gives an average of $50, then that's another month where Obama will have raised over $50 million.  This is a conservative estimate of Obama's floor for March.  In January 2008, the average contributed by each donor to Obama's campaign was $109.  That number went down in February as more than 90% of donors gave less than $100, but the decline was not significant given that Obama raised $55 million and a $109 average would have totalled $58 million.  Also, there is more than a week remaining in March.  I expect the Obama campaign to exceed the $55 million raised last month, perhaps by a significant amount.  It is possible that Barack Obama will raise more than $100 million in March.

This has taken place with a donor base where the vast majority are not maxed out for the primaries.  How many people who are already donors will make a second donation?  A third?  More?

Let's consider what this dynamic might mean for the Democratic Party with Obama as the nominee (a position that he is certain to win).  With an energized funding base this large, the mind reels when considering what kind of money will be raised once Obama is the nominee.  Imagine how energized the American people will be on August 28 after his first speech as the official nominee.  Imagine how much larger the Democratic nominee's warchest will be than McCain's.

Given Obama's past actions in 2004 and 2006, we can imagine him spreading the wealth around to other candidates.  In the fall of 2004, he spent a lot of time and money helping other Democrats in their races.  Lynn Sweet, writing in the Chicago Sun-Times in October 2004, detailed Obama's efforts, efforts made despite the fact that he was not yet elected to national office.  (Link to my old blog, as the Sun-Times link expired.)  According to Sweet, that fall Obama:

*Helped raise $850,000 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

*Donated $100,000 directly to the DSCC on Sept. 30, the end of the third-quarter reporting period.

*Donated $125,000 ($25,000 each) to the Colorado, Wisconsin, Alaska, South Dakota and Oklahoma Democratic parties on Sept. 30. Control of the Senate hinges on the outcome of close races in these states.

*Donated $25,000 to Florida Victory 2004, to bankroll get-out-the vote operations in a swing state that may prove decisive in the presidential election.

*Raised $260,000 for Senate candidates in 13 states.

*Raised $25,000 for Iowa state House and Senate candidates in Davenport on Monday.

*Headlined a Sept. 22 fund-raiser to collect $75,000 for the marquee House race in Illinois, where Democrat Melissa Bean is challenging Rep. Phil Crane (R-Ill.) in the northwest suburban district.

That is what State Senator Barack Obama did before he came to Washington.  Two years later he campaigned hard for Senate challengers across the nation in a successful effort to produce a new Democratic Senate majority.  The Democratic Party has strong challengers in arguably more than a dozen Senate races from Maine to Alaska.  Almost thirty Republican House members have retired this cycle, and more are vulnerable.  The prospects of an incredibly well-funded presidential candidate campaigning with, raising funds for, and giving money to dozens of Democratic challengers across the nation are very attractive...and very real.  Given Barack Obama's record and this unprecedented ability to inspire the American people to donate, the opportunities to compete across the map with an inspiring party leader and more money than the Republican Party can hope to raise are great.  

Two million donors.  How many more between now and November?