Obama victory: General election match-up polls underestimate his strength

On the surface, this vicious and protracted primary season is taking a toll on the Democrats' chances in November.  

RCP average has McCain leading Obama nationally by 1.6 points.  The latest Gallup poll has a whopping 28% of Hillary supporters flocking to McCain when Obama wins the nomination.  Polls have McCain gaining ground in a number of states on both candidates and the hardening of supporters in each Dem camp is very disconcerting to see.

However, it's not all gloom and doom and this is actually a sign that Obama will fare well in November.  All of these polls in general are underestimating Obama's strength for the following reasons:

1) Gaming the polls -- they overestimate party fractiousness
When asked in a poll, Obama supporters will say that they refuse to vote for Hillary and vice-versa.  It makes the opponent look weaker.  I would definitely vote for Hillary but if Rasmussen called and asked, I would say otherwise.  This is a soft argument, but it leads to the next point.

2) Dems will vote for Dems in November.
Kos alluded to this earlier.  According to the latest SurveyUSA polls for the battleground states of Minnesota and Virginia, Obama gets only 78% and 77% of the Democratic votes, respectively.  How did Kerry fare in 2004 for each state?  92% in each state!  This is just an example using two states, but it holds true across the board.  He will certainly make up a significant amount of this disparity by November, not just due to calls for party unity but also because of this:

3) McCain has had a free ride so far
No one is paying attention to him because of the Dem primaries, and he's benefited from the media vacation.  Conservatives support him because he is their nominee while a large number of Independents and even Democrats view him favorably because of his "maverick" status from 2000.  To borrow a Clinton talking point, he hasn't been vetted yet.  Once the focus shifts to him, Dems will realize what a horrid candidate he is.  Obama's general strategy is to accurately paint him as a 3rd Bush term and if worst comes to worst for McCain, he will be labeled a flip-flopper for his position changes and he will drive away Independents.

Despite the vicious primary season, Obama is only 1.6% behind McCain in the polls!  He will certainly make up this difference once the real election begins.