Reality Intrudes

A recent Gallup poll found that in a general election, 28% of Hillary supporters and 19% of Obama supporters would opt to vote for John McCain if their candidate doesn't get the nomination. I urge you to read this summary and try to make sense of the data it reflects. Likely defectors across both camps tend to be concentrated among conservative Democrats and independent voters, but Clinton defectors would include more voters of lower education and income. Blacks, liberal Democrats and core Democrat voters are least likely to defect no matter who wins the nomination. Surprisingly, gender appears to be a minor factor either way. The report concludes:

A recent Gallup poll found that in a general election, 28% of Hillary supporters and 19% of Obama supporters would opt to vote for John McCain if their candidate doesn't get the nomination. I urge you to read this summary and try to make sense of the data it reflects. Likely defectors across both camps tend to be concentrated among conservative Democrats and independent voters, but Clinton defectors would include more voters of lower education and income. Blacks, liberal Democrats and core Democrat voters are least likely to defect no matter who wins the nomination. Surprisingly, gender appears to be a minor factor either way. The report concludes:

"These findings are not necessarily surprising, but underscore Democrats' vulnerability with voters who are positioned somewhat more in the middle of the political or ideological spectrum. This may also reflect McCain's strong appeal to independent voters, who may not need much nudging to shift their vote from a Democratic candidate to McCain.

Black Democratic voters, regardless of whom they support, seem prepared to remain quite loyal to the Democratic Party. Fifteen percent of blacks who support Clinton would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, and only 10% of blacks who support Obama would vote for McCain if Clinton is the nominee. In other words, there is little apparent risk of losing a substantial proportion of black voters regardless of who the nominee is."

The Democratic Party, made up as it is by a diverse coalition highly organized and motivated interest groups has evolved two methods for loosing elections. By nominating someone who plays to the middle-of-the road so that they offend no one the general election is lost due to simple lack of interest (Mondale, Gore, Kerry). The other tendency is for a vocal faction of the party to amass so much influence that the party is split into warring camps that are unable to amass enough support across political lines to win in the general election. The notable exception to this routine was of course, Bill Clinton, who was able to appeal both to the liberal and conservative wings of the party through a rare combination of sheer intelligence and his populist instincts. Perhaps the biggest mistake made by the Obama campaign, a mistake made by many others in the past, was to try and neutralize Bill Clinton as a political force by trying to damage his political ties with the black voting community. Suggesting that Bill Clinton is somehow racist is akin to suggesting that John Kerry didn't deserve his war medals.  

The first contradiction faced by a campaign fueled by assumptions of moral superiority is that elections can be won without playing the game or by somehow changing the rules in midstream. It's telling that, in the present election campaign many of the major criticisms directed at Clinton by members of her own party is that she is to much of a 'political animal' or 'monster', who will do anything to win.  One rule of thumb that I hold is to never trust a politician who proclaims to be above politics. The problem with ideological factions is that they tend to get so lost in their own mirror maze that they are unable to perceive or respond effectively to real events outside of their hermetic circle (see: the presidency of George W. Bush). Much of Obama's support has an edge of zealotry, and zealotry begets a collective narcissism that confuses one's self-image with the image projected to the rest of the world.

Obama supporters may well be the future of their party, but they are only one part of the present. They brazenly dismiss at least one half of a party that numbers veterans of many political battles over several generations, calling them cynical, racist or even criminal. That in itself is enough to piss off those of us who know better. Add to this increasing complications brought about by the video release of the pastor Jeremiah Wright's sermon excerpts on both mainstream media and the Internet. We are beginning to see a slow bleed of support for both candidates on the part of independents and white working class voters who are part of the base that any Democrat or Republican needs to attract in order to win the general election.  

The treacherous quagmire of racial politics that Obamacrats currently find themselves navigating is largely of their own making. While Obama, with typical inspiring brilliance and rhetorical finesse asked us to honestly engage in a national conversation about race, his surrogates as far back as the Massachusetts and South Carolina primaries have made a concerted effort to 'swiftboat' their opponents by hanging the term racist around the neck of any white person who dares even to bring up the issue. Various arbiters of political correctness like Melissa Harris-Lacewell, John Lewis and Keith Olbermann have tried with some success to silence criticism from white liberals who are afraid of alienating black Democrats or being labelled 'racially insensitive'. (Matt Tiabbi suggests that Geraldine Ferraro's attributing Obama's success to his race was the equivalent of calling him a 'nigger.')

The Jeremiah Wright disaster is an example of the chickens coming home to roost. It's a scenario that will be repeated with ever accelerating frequency in the general election where Republicans and their media representatives have no similar fears of offending their base, and where they have nothing to loose and everything to gain. I'm told by Obama's folks that his speech transcended all of that. Many people prescribe to the belief that anyone who listens to Obama speak will be instantly converted. (I've actually been told this.) I heard the speech and was duly impressed (see my previous post) by the candidate's ability to grasp and communicate the nuanced intricacies of a very complex issue. However, this did not make me a convert. Many people heard that speech, but many more did not, and attacks from the conservative media based on its content and their deconstruction of its content began immediately and will continue. Obama's glowing pleas for unity will be presented alongside the divisive words and images of his preacher from now until November.  

In an election during an economic downturn and an unpopular war people will vote for the candidate who offers reassurance and security. Calls for  'hope' and 'change' that are ill-defined and untested in times that are already uncertain are unlikely to have much attraction outside of the circle of true believers. I'm told that The War will be the driving issue against John McCain, but in the absence of a strong anti-war movement and in the face of a pretty static situation I don't think it will be as much of a factor as some assume. Republicans will campaign for going the course and strengthening our values while reinforcing our international military and economic alliances. Their candidate, John McCain, will pose an image of fatherly presence and experience under fire against a candidate who, in Obama's case, will be portrayed as an inexperienced and presumptuous outsider with a suspicious sounding 'foreign' name who is influenced by those who deign to criticize those values.

I recognize the pull of the Obama campaign which includes his appeal to a new constituency of young voters and his ability to elevate worthy positions with a rare gift for inspired oratory. In another year I might be an avid supporter. However, I'm not willing to throw my trust behind a candidate based on rhetoric and his appeal to the young. The lamest reason I've ever heard for supporting a candidate is that "my kids asked me to." This suggest to me a willingness to abandon judgement and experience for the fleeting whims of the young. Still, on at least three occasions as I've witnessed the rise of his support or been impressed by one of his speeches, I've taken a hard look and questioned my own alliances. This has brought me time and again to the same conclusion. Recent events have further confirmed my belief that Barack Obama has very little chance of victory in the general election. I believe that HIllary both offers a radical change of image and that she has more of a chance of victory. Her nomination risks the defection of potential voters, but I believe Obama's nomination will result in the loss of even more. In both cases the base is likely to hold.

Meanwhile it would behoove members of both campaigns to treat the other with some degree of respect. We've got a long way to go.

Gratefully, much of the wild crowing has died down. Many local Obama supporters have recently gone from self-righteous taunting to belligerent grumbling. The constant chorus of pleas and requests that Hillary and her supporters simply withdraw and go home are beginning to fade as the leaks in Obama's boat become more evident, even to true believers. Pundits like Hunter Thompson pretender Matt Tiabbi of Rolling Stone magazine's National Affairs desk. apparently bewildered by the failure of actual voters to follow his ill-timed predictions of an Obama sweep in Texas and Ohio, has stepped back from hurling pure invective at everything Hillary and taken the tack of condemning the political process as a whole. The line goes something like, "Either Obama wins or American Democracy is a failure." This only reminds us of Democrats who consistently blame their past two losses on rigged voting machines rather than poor campaigning.  

Reality intrudes. Hillary will not go away, nor will those who believe in her candidacy. There are a growing number of indicators that the Obama wave based on pure charisma and a story that the media could not pass up, may have crested. The next weeks and months will be relentlessly grueling and both candidates will be subject to more intense scrutiny as they criticize one another and the real opposition gears up for the fall. At the end of the road to the nomination lies John McCain, and a unified and heavily financed Republican machine. Indications so far from the Obama camp are that they are as likely to underestimate McCain as they have underestimated Hillary.