LA-06: Another potential special election Dem pickup

Cook Political Report (subscription required):

Meanwhile, the special election to replace GOP Rep. Richard Baker's seat in Louisiana continues to give national Republicans heartburn. Less than three weeks away from the April 5th primary runoff, competitive primaries are playing out in both parties. Insiders on both sides agree the nomination of the current favorites - moderate Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux and GOP newspaper publisher Woody Jenkins - would present something akin to a perfect storm for Democrats in the May 3rd special general election.

This district is rated a solid R+7, with Bush beating Kerry 59-40 in 2004. By comparison, IL-14 is R+5. Three weeks ago, Cook moved this up from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican". He now rates it a "toss-up".  

To be sure, the Democrat in the race, Don Cazayoux, is rabidly anti-immigrant and anti-choice. He brags about joining the Blue Dogs. He would be a terrible person on social issues, which is enough to ensure I won't lift a finger to help get him elected. But he would be a good vote on the occasional issue like SCHIP and has called for a withdrawal from Iraq. So instead of getting 0 percent progressivism from a wingnut Republican, 30-50 percent would be an improvement. That can matter quite a bit, especially for our troops in Iraq.

Perhaps more importantly, how much money will the NRCC blow from its meager coffers to try and hold yet another supposedly safe Republican seat? How much of a blow to the NRCC's confidence and fundraising ability will another unlikely special election loss deliver? Gaining another Blue Dog would be a small price to pay for having a decimated NRCC lead to dozens of progressive victories around the country. Many of which will be elected thanks to our enthusiastic support.

Race tracker wiki: LA-06