Texas, early voting; and will it be a purple state?
by kos
Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 12:34:25 PM PDT
While today's batch of polling suggests that Clinton has halted Obama's forward march in Ohio and Texas (I'll have final predictions tomorrow morning), two polls have early voting numbers.
Remember, these aren't the current numbers (which are essentially tied), these are people who have already voted. And since neither poll offers a breakdown, the MoE for that cohort is unknown.
SurveyUSA. 3/1-2. Likely voters.
Clinton 50
Obama 48
Public Strategies (PDF). 2/27-3/1. Likely voters.
Obama 56
Clinton 44
We have a huge 14-point difference. SUSA has proven its mettle this election cycle, so they have earned respect, but again, pollsters don't know what to make of their turnout models in this odd primary season. So none are infallible. And given the higher MoE's of this sub-sample, we may simply be dealing with a statistically problematic sample size.
Put your money on SUSA, regardless who you support, and work your ass to win the election-day ballot.
More exciting to me was found in page 5 of that Public Strategies poll:
McCain (R) 50
Clinton (D) 46
McCain (R) 49
Obama (D) 42
Texas may very well be in play, regardless who wins our nomination.
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