(I've searched-there was a flurry of diaries on this race in mid-December and not much since.) Okay, this is my second stab at a real, analytical diary. Though I'm a relative neophyte, this is my first attempt at tackling a political issue. It is as much a request for information as a sharing of my thoughts, so all contributions are appreciated.
I've been following the "50-state" effort and skimmed Kos' update a few days ago. As a born and raised New Yorker, I noted that we still didn't have challengers in NY-03 and NY-13. Since I'm not in either district and NY's deadline is 7/13, I didn't look any further.
Yesterday morning, RBH put up a very nice (and apparently little-read) diary updating the remaining "unopposeds," listing each Republican incumbent by name and district. From that list two things stood out. The first was that RBH didn't have the NY-13 incumbent on the list, leading me to believe that the seat will now be opposed. (More after the flip...)
But the shocker was when I scanned the list and saw just who the remaining NY unopposed is. Does this ring a bell?
It's all over but the counting; and we'll take care of the counting.
- Rep Peter King, NY-03
In the comments of that diary, BENAWU put up a very helpful post regarding some possible challengers. I was gratified to see that there was, indeed, a possibility for NY-03 - Dave Denenberg.
Now, based on what I've seen and heard of King, I'd have been happy if the local dog catcher was running against him; better than a free pass. But reviewing the link to the Newsday article written on 2/6 that BENAWU helpfully provided suddenly put this potential race in a new light.
In short, Denenberg was giving it a month to see if he could raise the money to make a run at King. According to the Kingwatch blog he was trying to raise $250k by March 1, so perhaps it's already moot. But the Newsday article seems to indicate that, despite having had some "issues" in the past, Denenberg may be more than just a paper opponent.
Denenberg backers say the Merrick Democrat should not be taken lightly, noting that even after he pleaded guilty to violating election law on petitions, he won his last election with 69 percent of the vote in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-2.
"He is one of the best retail politicians on the Island," said Jay Jacob, Nassau Democratic chairman. "Dave Denenberg would be the first solid, well-credentialed, well-funded candidate that Peter King ever had to face. He also has his own organization and strong base in the district - something no other Democrat has ever had."
King reacts with his typical professionalism and class...
There's been a buzz about King's Third District seat since December, when a poll financed by Bishop and congressional Democrats suggested that the 14-year incumbent could be vulnerable - if he's linked to President George W. Bush, whose polls have sagged because of the unpopular Iraq war.
King dismissed the polls, says he'll run on his record and made light of reports that Denenberg has surfaced as his third potential opponent. "I was afraid I was going to have to run unopposed," he said. "It'll teach Denenberg to be the last guy out of the room."
So here goes - having grown up in Queens, I've been a neighbor of Long Island for much of my life. I still know a lot of people who live there; many blamed Cuomo and the Democrats for their tax problems and some of that resentment may linger. But I also know folks who say it's worse than ever today and there are a lot of "for sale" signs on formerly prime LI real estate. This would seem to be a seat that we just can't let go uncontested.
In reading some of the background, Denenberg actually seems like he might be someone worth backing. Now for the questions - does anyone know more about this race and/or any of the players involved? If he is credible and it appears he hasn't looked for support from the "netroots," should we then make an overture to him (assuming that something I'm not aware of doesn't already exist)? Obviously we want to avoid the trap that Kos has noted about becoming an ATM for prospective candidates. But if he runs, does he have a chance? And with King having been named chair of the Homeland Security committee, I'd think he'd be a nice tower to topple; every seat is crucial and we certainly can't afford to stand on ceremony. Whaddaya think?
I'll conclude with this; I've come to trust the vetting ability of this community. If, in fact, the consensus is that Denenberg is a suitable candidate, I'll be among the first to kick in my $25 and as it's close to home for me (both literally and figuratively) it'd probably be the first campaign to which I'd volunteer my time.
Again, all thoughts appreciated...