Pennsylvania Schmennsylvania

The MSM and Hillary Clinton supporters who are all a-dither about finally getting a win point to Pennysylvania as the next big stop in the campaign.  I'm not sure why it gets such special attention other than it being one of the last states in the "States Hillary Can Win" category, but let's take a closer look at the facts.

Because of the MSM's exclusive obsession with PA, I did not notice til just 2 days ago that North Carolina has almost as many delegates as PA.  And as things stand now, it looks as if Obama is likely to take NC with a higher margin than Hillary will take PA.

RealClear Politics lists the delegate totals as follows:

Pennsylvania 188/158 pledged  (votes April 22nd)

North Carolina 134/115 pledged   (votes May 6th)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

I suspected that this would result in a near-tie in the delegate count between these two states so I did an experiment.  Let's presume that the states vote the following ways:

PA Hillary 55%  Obama 45% (similar to OH results)

NC Hillary 40%  Obama 60%  (similar to VA results)

The delegates would be apportioned approximately as follows, based purely on popular vote percentages:

Hillary 133

Obama 140

Obama actually wins MORE delegates in this not-so-unlikely scenario.

In other words, stop worrying about Pennsylvania, Obama folk!  NC alone will most likely balance out any gain Hillary might have coming out of PA, just as WY and MS will cancel out any gains in the delegate totals she won last night.

A word to naysayers: you may redo the math as you please, but one thing you cannot do is assume Hillary will do better than now expected but Obama will not.  It's equally as likely that Obama will do better than expected and Hillary will not.  In my methodology I have simply used past performance as a guide.

Oh yeah, and remind everyone and the MSM that there are other "big" states apart from PA coming up.