IL-14: Endgame

(Some more analysis on tomorrow's special election in Illinois, where the Republicans are getting so desperate they're breaking House rules to try and keep the seat from flipping blue. SusanG)

Tomorrow's the big day in Illinois' 14th District. The polls are good, and the media is savaging Jim Oberweis. This time, it is over an Oberweis ad which depicted four families which were, according to Oberweis, going to be leveled by hateful Bill Foster's hateful tax hikes.

Only thing is, they didn't exist:

If Bill Foster gets his way, the Wadsworths will pay an extra $8,905 a year!

Total fiction. All of it. These people don't exist. They were created by Oberweis' campaign, which bought stock photos to use in the ad.

They're nice-looking folks, although they're sporting awfully big smiles given that they could be slapped with Foster's huge tax increases.

Oh, wait, these families don't exist. They're fake.

Oberweis' response? It's hard work, finding real live people.

Democrat Bill Foster appears to have the momentum going into the election, which has led both CQ Politics and Rothenberg to change their ranking of this race to Toss Up/No Clear favorite.

Again, this seat would be a major coup for Democrats heading into election season. From CQ:

In fact, the race seems close enough that CQ Politics is applying a rating of "No Clear Favorite" to the Illinois 14 contest — a change from the Leans Republican rating that previously applied to the race. Should Foster win — and private and public polls suggest that is a plausible scenario — it would mark the first time in nearly four years that a special election caused a shift in partisan control of a congressional district.

Republican strategists acknowledge that the race is very close and that they’re aware of the implications of a Democratic victory in the former Speaker’s district.

"We understand the symbolic importance of the race," Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole , the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), told reporters Monday at a breakfast meeting that was organized by the Christian Science Monitor. "It will be spun out of all proportions if we were to lose it. It will be ‘my God, it’s the end of the Republican Party, the Speaker’s seat is gone.’ "

The wild card in this race will be turnout: I don't think anyone is quite certain what to expect from a Saturday special election. This being a Republican district, I think lower turnout should favor Republican Jim Oberweis, so every vote counts.

With just a day left, the campaigning is at fever pitch. Here's the DCCC's latest ad on Oberweis' dishonest campaign tactics:

Needless to say, Oberweis didn't care for the ad. He couldn't really think of a good reason to complain, though...so he has his company, Oberweis Dairy, file suit against the DCCC, alleging that their ads were hurting business.

Now, this has backfired, as the DCCC has filed an FEC complaint against the Oberweis campaign for so using the resources of one's business to benefit one's campaign.

It doesn't matter how much Oberweis screws up, though, if we can't get voters out to the polls tomorrow. So help out at Blue Majority, or visit Foster's website for information on volunteering.