What Obama Should Be Saying Now

We all know that Senator Clinton cannot overcome Obama's advantage in pledged delegates.  And we know she knows it.  She doesn't care.  She's playing a dangerous but canny game, trying to weaken Obama in voters' eyes while making a claim that she has the momentum.  Ultimately, she's going to try to make her case for the nomination through a combination of the following:

* Obama is untested and unready

* His delegate lead has come from a lot of red state caucuses and small state primaries

* She has won the big states that "matter"

* It's perfectly fine for superdelegates to support her for the nomination, because they're free to support the "best" candidate, and that candidate is her.

Follow me over the hump for my thoughts on what Obama should be doing right now and what he should be saying from now on.

1.  Senator Clinton will lose the battle for pledged delegates.  Obama and his surrogates should say this at every opportunity.  They should emphasize that they aren't grandstanding; rather, the pledged delegate math makes clear that, barring huge victories by Clinton in every upcoming state, she will not come close to catching Obama in pledged delegates.  When they're talking with MSNBC, they should cite Chuck Todd's reporting on the pledged delegates.  When they're talking with CNN, they should cite John King.  They should distribute a memo that echoes the math of our own PocketNines.  They should educate the media until every reporter, commentator, and pundit echoes this truth.

2.  Because Senator Clinton will have fewer pledged delegates, she is counting on superdelegates to help her come from behind and secure the nomination.  This strategy is elitist and unprecedented.  Never before in our present system of delegates and superdelegates has the will of primary and caucus voters been overturned by superdelegates.  To do so in 2008 would be disastrous.  Obama needs to make this case publicly and privately.  Tonight, when he declares victory in Wyoming, he should emphasize that the will of Wyoming voters is clear, that these voters are excited to be making a difference in the Democratic nominating process, and that they cannot be ignored.  In private, he should be telling superdelegates that the Democratic Party would be committing suicide if it undercuts the will of the voters.  He should call it Assisted Suicide, with Senator Clinton as the one urging this terrible action.

3.  Obama should also be telling uncommitted superdelegates that they can avoid contention and potential disaster in Denver by acting now.  If they endorse him now, his lead will grow, making it ever harder for Clinton to argue that it would be acceptable for superdelegates to help her overcome her deficit.  There remain too many primaries to speculate on the final margin, but it doesn't really matter.  They key point is this: At the present numbers, and within a reasonable range of outcomes in the remaining states, Clinton would require at least 60% of the uncommitted SD's to push her over the top.  As more SD's endorse Obama, Clinton's required percentage would grow.  Clearly, if sufficient SD's endorse Obama now, he could actually ensure himself the nomination by the end of the primaries, but even if he falls a little short of that number, he and the SD's could create an endgame in which Clinton would need 75%, 80%, even 90% of uncommitted SD's to wrest the nomination from Obama.  SD's who refuse to commit now will actually have less individual power in Denver, because they will be a part of an indeterminately large or small bloc with the power to vote for one candidate or the other.  By committing now for Obama, an SD will be putting added pressure on Clinton and making it proportionally harder for her to argue that they should throw the nomination to her.

To put it most simply: It would be much simpler for Clinton to argue that uncommitted SD's should give her the nomination by splitting 60-40 than by splitting 90-10.

4. Senator Clinton has a self-serving definition of which states are "significant" and "insignificant."  First, Senator Obama believes that every state is significant, but we all also realize that some states will be part of the solid Blue Democratic base in November, some will remain red states unless the election turns into a rout, and some states will be battlegrounds.  With the exception of Ohio, which Senator Clinton won, the "big" states that she calls significant are already solid blue.  She is trying to get an edge by pointing out that she has won states like New York, California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, but these states have been reliably Democratic for many presidential elections running.  No one seriously believes that any of these states is in danger of turning red in November.

The states we should be watching are the ones that have been battlegrounds or that could be battlegrounds in 2008, and Senator Obama has won the overwhelming majority of them.  States like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, and Iowa ought to be Democratic; we need them to be blue on Election Night.  But Senator Clinton lost them all badly, and polls show Senator Obama dramatically outperforming her against McCain in all of them.  Even in New Hampshire, which Senator Clinton won, Senator Obama wins easily against Senator McCain, whereas the state becomes a battleground for Clinton.  In other states, which have been turning from red to purple, Senator Obama can make them turn blue in November, whereas Senator Clinton probably cannot.  Virginia, which Obama won by 29 points, would right now go blue for him, whereas McCain would easily beat Clinton there.  Colorado, Georgia, and Louisiana all become states McCain has to defend if Obama is the nominee.  Even consistently Republican states like Texas, Kansas, Idaho, and Alaska become states that McCain would have to worry about.  And given the key senatorial races in states like Alaska, Nebraska, Mississippi, and Idaho, the Democratic Party needs Senator Obama's coattails.

If we're going to talk about "significant" states, we need to be talking about the battlegrounds, the states we can add to the Democratic column or at least force Senator McCain to play defense in them.

SHORTER MESSAGE  Senator Obama's lead in pledged delegates is insurmountable, and he has won by far the most states where we will be actively fighting for victory this fall.  Indeed, if superdelegates throw the nomination to Senator Clinton, our party will be fractured, and victory will become far harder to achieve.  Every voter and every superdelegate who wants this primary process to lead to our party united behind the nominee chosen by the people should support Barack Obama now.