Not much time goes by between one House/Senate/Governor 2006 update and the next. Many of them, admittedly, are from me. And it is extremely important to focus on the elections next year. After all, 2006 starts in exactly three weeks, and as early as March, primaries will begin taking place, with Texas firing the first shot on March 7. Election fever will hit each and every one of us from then on until November 7 (or even into December if Louisiana has a runoff!).
The midterm elections are going to be the biggest event in America next year, and as political junkies we will be much more swept up than most. So I figured, for a break, I'd cover not national elections, but state legislative elections in my home state of California.
Read below the fold...
State legislative elections are extremely important for many reasons. Not only do the legislatures in Sacramento, Austin, Albany, Tallahassee, Springfield, Harrisburg, Columbus, and every other capital make the laws, but legislators are the future Congressmen, Senators, Governors, and Presidents.
So, I figured it was my duty to take a peek at the state races in California. If you are intrigued, I recommend you do the same, for your home state. If you don't give a $@#& about California politics, stop now.
California
First an introduction into the balance of power. Term limits for the governor, state officers, and legislators were passed in 1990. The governor and state officers are only allowed two four-year terms, for a total of 8 possible years serving. It is the same for State Senators. Half of the Senate is up every two years.
Members of the Assembly serve two-year terms, and are limited to three, for a total of 6 possible years. The entire Assembly is up every two years.
So, if that made no sense, it doesn't matter. Just keep reading.
Senate
The 40-member Senate is composed of 25 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Again, only 20 of these seats are up for grabs in 2006. 12 of these 20 Senators (10 Dems and 2 Repubs) are term-limited or leaving. The other 8 (4 Dems, 4 Repubs) are seeking reelection:
Open: 02 (Chesbro), 06 (Ortiz), 08 (Speier), 10 (Figueroa), 14 (Poochigian), 20 (Alarcon), 26 (Murray), 28 (Bowen), 30 (Escutia), 32 (Soto), 34 (Dunn), 38 (Morrow)
Seeking Reelection: Aanestad (R-04), Denham (R-12), Florez (D-16), Ashburn (R-18), Cedillo (D-22), Romero (D-24), Hollingsworth (R-36), Ducheny (D-40)
Believe it or not, 18 of these 20 Senate seats will probably stay with the incumbent party. At best, only two, District 12 in the Central Valley where Jeff Denham (R) is seeking reelection, and District 34 in Orange County where Joe Dunn (D) is term-limited, will see a competitive race.
Assembly
The 80-member Assembly is composed of 48 Democrats and 32 Republicans. All 80 of these seats are up for grabs in 2006. 33 of these 80 Assemblymembers (23 Dems and 10 Repubs) are term-limited or leaving. The other 47 (25 Dems and 22 Repubs) are seeking reelection.
Again, most of these seats are safe for the incumbent party, even the open ones. At best, only the following will see competitive races:
Guy Houston (R-15) seeking reelection in the East Bay
Barbara Matthews (D-17) term-limited in the Central Valley
Ira Ruskin (D-21) seeking reelection in the South Bay
Nicole Parra (D-30) seeking reelection in the Central Valley
Pedro Nava (D-35) seeking reelection in the Santa Barbara/Ventura area
Shirley Horton (R-78) seeking reelection in San Diego (this is a Dem-leaning seat)
Conclusion
In conclusion, there won't be a lot of change in the California legislature, since only 6 Assembly districts and 2 Senate districts could see tough competition.
Now, it's your turn to spend hours analyzing state legislative races in your state.