1. Virginia. Mark Warner has been cruising to victory here since the day he announced his candidacy. As of the December 31 filing, he had
outraised opponent Jim Gilmore by a ratio of nearly 11:1. Reports are that Warner raised a whopping
$2.5 million in Q1 as well. Rasmussen's latest poll gives Warner a
16-point lead in the open-seat race, 55% to 39%, and has consistently
enjoyed a 15-20 point lead in all polling.
2. New Mexico.
Democratic Rep.
Tom Udall is enjoying
wide polling leads over both his Republican opponents, Republican Representatives Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson. Rasmussen has him leading Pearce by 14 points, 54% to 40%, and shows an even wider lead over Wilson, 56% to 36%. Udall has twice the
cash-on-hand of Pearce, and significantly more than Wilson as of December 31. Udall, like Warner, is right where he wants to be going forward.
3. New Hampshire. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has led incumbent Republican Sen. John Sununu in pretty much every poll on the race. The last two Rasmussen polls show Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 41%; needless to say, this is very bad news for an incumbent Senator. Several other polling outfits have shown her with even wider leads. Sununu, being the incumbent, does have the fundraising advantage, and he has already beaten Shaheen once (in their 2002 Senate race). However, New Hampshire is trending Democratic, and while I wouldn't say this is a sure thing, Shaheen is clearly in the stronger position as of now.
4. Colorado.
Mark Udall has a
healthy cash advantage over his competitor, Republican Bob
"Sweat Shop" Schaffer. He has also led in most of the polling conducted thus far; the latest
Rasmussen poll shows Udall leading Schaffer 46% to 43%. Schaffer has had a pretty rough week, actually. He recently stated that he'd like to see our immigration policy adapted to emulate that of the
Marianas Islands. I guess Schaffer would know, being that he apparently
traveled to the Marianas in 1999 to investigate labor conditions...on a trip sponsored by Jack Abramoff. I guess Abramoff's people convinced him that child labor, prostitution and forced abortions were worth emulating.
5. Alaska. Ted Stevens is still under federal investigation, and Democrat Mark Begich, the expected nominee, is running even with Stevens in the latest poll. Even better, Begich's favorability numbers and numbers among independents are excellent, putting him in a strong position for this race even if Stevens manages not to get indicted.
6. Minnesota. The path to the Democratic nomination is clear for Blue Majority candidate Al Franken, who has been raising money at a phenomenal clip so far. Polls have shown this race neck-and-neck over the last several months, and that is where it still stands. Despite being the sixth-ranked Senate race in terms of competitiveness, I'd consider it no worse than a tossup right now.
7. Louisiana. Mary Landrieu is the only Democratic incumbent facing any kind of serious challenge at the moment. Her opponent is State Treasurer and former Democrat John N. Kennedy, who was personally recruited by Karl Rove to run against Landrieu. Kennedy is a decent challenger, Louisiana has been trending away from the Democratic Party of late, and Landrieu has always faced tough elections, so it's fair to expect this one to be relatively close. Still, Landrieu is in a good position; she is the incumbent, she has fairly decent approval numbers, a formidable warchest, and she has a 16-point lead over Kennedy in the latest Rasmussen poll. As of now, Landrieu should be favored.
8. Oregon. I don't think things look as nice here as they did at one point. The contested primary between Democrats Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick has gotten a bit unpleasant, with Novick apparently reluctant to back his fellow Democrats should he lose the nomination. Novick is currently running ahead of Merkley and the other Democrats in the race, and polls slightly better against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith, though that may change as there's still a month to go until the primary. Regardless of who the candidate will be, Smith has a substantial polling lead and money advantage. His mediocre approvals indicate that he can be beaten, but it will be an uphill battle for either candidate.
9. Maine. Tom Allen has been running for eons, it seems, and while he has made a little headway against popular Republican incumbent Susan Collins, and his fundraising has been good, the polling numbers are moving very slowly, with Rasmussen's latest numbers showing Collins leading Allen, 54% to 38%. I still think Allen has a decent shot-he's represented half the state in Congress for a decade, and the policy differences between Allen and Collins are significant-but it is an uphill battle. I actually wouldn't be surprised if this wound up being a more competitive race than Oregon, but as of now, I think this is the right place for it.
10. Mississippi. Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove faces appointed Senator Roger Wicker. This race has some potential for an upset. Musgrove's polling numbers have been surprisingly strong against Wicker (with Musgrove even enjoying a 14-point lead in one poll), perhaps due to the fact that he enjoys near-universal name recognition from his tenure as Governor, while Wicker is not especially well known outside his former territory of the First District, and has never won statewide before. It's still Mississippi, still one of the most Republican states in the country, and so Wicker has to be favored in the absence of evidence to the contrary, but this race could end up being quite competitive.
11. North Carolina. Republican Elizabeth Dole has been a terrible waste of a Senate seat since her 2002 defeat of Erskine Bowles; she's done absolutely nothing for North Carolina other than run the NRSC into the ground in 2006 (which the entire country owes her for, I suppose). Naturally, her utter ineffectiveness as a Senator has left her vulnerable to a good challenge, despite North Carolina's Republican tilt in recent years. She lucked out in that many of the strongest Democrats in the state opted against a race, but she is not out of the woods, with State Sen. Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal challenging her on the Democratic side. The primary is about a month away; Hagan has a slight edge over Neal for the nomination, and I'd expect her to take the nomination. Dole should be favored to take this one, but she'll actually have to work for it (which is not her political forte).
12. Texas. Blue Majority candidate Rick Noriega faces the thoroughly useless and incompetent John Cornyn, who enjoys a considerable polling lead and fundraising advantage despite his middling approval numbers. Cornyn is the definition of a political lightweight, he's as staunch a Bush ally as there is in the Senate, and his bio looks absolutely pathetic next to Noriega's. This race could get quite interesting for these reasons, although it would be incredibly difficult given Cornyn's powerful money advantage and Texas' red hue. One never knows, though; Noriega received more votes in the Texas primary with 51% than John Cornyn did with 81%. Considering that this is Texas, that's pretty good news.
13. Kentucky. Several Democratic candidates were rumored as potential challengers to Mitch McConnell-State Auditor Crit Luallen, Attorney General Greg Stumbo, attorney Andrew Horne-but all of them opted against a race, or dropped out, leaving businessmen Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford squaring off for the right to take on McConnell. In theory, this race could be competitive-McConnell's polling numbers and approvals haven't been great-but he's a notoriously ruthless campaigner with more money than God, and the Democratic candidate with better name recognition, Lunsford, has engendered a great deal of ill will within the party for his past support of Republican candidates.
14. New Jersey. I almost don't know what to write about New Jersey, because it's liable to change within five minutes. Initially, businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook was the presumptive Republican nominee to oppose Senator Frank Lautenberg, but she dropped out for health reasons. Casting about for replacements, the Republicans found former Goya executive and nightclub owner Andy Unanue, who proved to be more hilarious than credible as a candidate. Then the Republicans seemed to have gotten a legitimately strong candidate in biotech executive John Crowley...until Crowley dropped out himself. This left them with no option but to draft former Rep. Dick Zimmer, who lost his first race for this seat in 1996 to Democrat Robert Torricelli, and then lost an attempt to win back his old seat from Rep. Rush Holt in 1998. So, frankly, the 84-year-old Lautenberg is looking pretty safe. He faces a primary challenge from moderate nine-term Rep. Rob Andrews, and it's possible that Andrews could beat him by running on Lautenberg's age, but it's seldom that a primary challenge from the right will succeed in a blue state.
15. Kansas. Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Kansas since the 1930s, and it's nit especially likely that we'll take out incumbent Senator Pat Roberts, but at least we have a credible candidate in former Congressman Jim Slattery.
16. Nebraska. Scott Kleeb.. Enough said. He faces wealthy businessman (and former Republican) Tony Raimondo, and if he survives the primary he gets to face popular former Governor Mike Johanns. It's going to be an immensely tough fight...but one worth fighting.
17. Idaho. Larry Craig's old seat is up this year, with Democrat Larry LaRocco, a former Congressman who lost a 2006 race for lieutenant governor, facing the man who defeated him in that race, Republican Jim Risch. LaRocco actually had more cash on hand as of the end-of-year filings, and he has good name recognition statewide, so there's some hope for a competitive race here. Still, Risch beat LaRocco pretty badly in the Lt. Gov race last cycle, and even though this year may provide us with the most favorable circumstances we've seen in years, it's still exceedingly difficult to win a Senate race in Idaho.
18. Oklahoma. Incumbent James Inhofe, noted climate-change denier, has had notably mediocre approvals over the past few years. His opponent is 34-year-old State Senator Andrew Rice, a rising star in Oklahoma politics who lost a brother in the 9/11 attacks. Inhofe has a tremendous money advantage, and it's hard to see this race being very competitive right now, but a lot of things can happen between now and November.
19. Tennessee. I doubt this race will be very competitive, but I thought I'd list it at the end as there is a relatively credible Democrat in the race, former party chairman Bob Tuke. He has his work cut out for him facing Lamar Alexander, and it would take a series of extremely fortunate events to make this race very competitive.
20. South Dakota. Sort of the same situation as Tennessee. I list it below Tennessee because I think the political climate favors us more than the Republicans. Anyway, don't worry too much about Tim Johnson.
21. Georgia. There's a whole boatload of Democrats in the race to take on incumbent Senator and thoroughly repulsive creature Saxby Chambliss. The most recent to enter the race is former state legislator Jim Martin, who I quite like. It would have been nice if he had entered the race six months or a year ago, when it might have made a dime's worth of difference, but you can't have everything.
