Yesterday brought another stinging defeat to the Republicans and their midnight gerrymander of the Colorado US House districts. The Supreme Court denied their application for an
emergency stay that would have put the 2003 map in place for the fall elections. Yes, the court could still grant certiorari, but under their normal timetable the fastest I could see the case moving would be oral arguments in the spring and a decision in late summer. I doubt they would force a redrawing of the maps that close to the election. More likely if cert were granted the case would be set for oral argument in October and no decision would come out until 2005. Most likely, cert will be denied.
The Colorado GOP has to know that the Supreme Court almost never issues an emergency stay in a non-criminal case. So why did they try for one here? First, it's not their money. You and I are paying for this with our tax dollars, so no downside there. Second, they're desperate. I see a lot of bravado from conservatives about how some massive influx of out of staters has somehow transformed the 7th CD into a safe Republican seat in the space of two years, but more realistically both parties know they are going to have a hell of a fight on their hands out there. (Besides, how many people have lost their jobs or have job uncertainty up in the north suburbs? Probably more than in 2002.)
And I actually believe the GOP is more worried about the 3rd CD. John Salazar is looking like every bit the political mastermind that his brother is, and with GJ Mayor John Spehar self-destructing, Salazar looks to cruise to the nomination while the Republicans beat the crap out of each other. Now Ken Chlouber will have to relocate if he wants to have any credibility as a candidate in that district; Leadville remains in the 5th CD until further notice.
I have to wonder if some partisan Republicans have gotten a little too much comfort from Bush v. Gore. My personal opinion (and who really knows) is that at least some of the justices from the majority side in that case feel, well, kind of dirty about the whole experience and don't want to repeat it. But I wouldn't be surprised if some Republicans, who after all are famed for their Party loyalty and discipline, feel like the court is on their side and will be the ultimate trump card to swallow any screwball legal theory that helps the GOP maintain power.