Predictions thread

Pulling this from you know where:

Clinton 54
Obama 46

Delegates: +12 Clinton
Popular vote: +200,000 Clinton

That's actually the safe prediction, since it's what the polls tell us is going to happen. I could've done the "play the expectations game" thing and pegged it at an 11-point Clinton victory, which is more than possible (I'd give it a 30 percent chance of happening). I could've gone out on a limb and predicted a 1-3 point Clinton victory, citing the large voter registration gains in Obama territory (a 20 percent chance of happening).

But an 8-point Clinton victory "feels" right. It would unfortunately not be enough to conclusively push her from the race, though the popular vote and delegate gains would not be enough to give her any hope of catching Obama in either category. In fact, he'd likely win that back and more in two weeks in North Carolina and Indiana.

But here's hoping Obama proves me wrong and he notches a far narrower loss. Anything less than five percent, and I think Clinton's efforts are mortally wounded. If Obama shocks the political world with an upset victory, Clinton would be DOA.

God knows I've been plenty wrong, but for now, I'm thinking this thing doesn't end for another two weeks.

What are your guesses?

Some other predictions from around the web (stolen from Al Giordano's post linked below) featuring full district breakdowns:

Al Giordano:

Clinton 52.3
Obama 47.7

Delegates: +3 Clinton

Election Inspection:

Clinton 56
Obama 44

Delegates: +12 Clinton

Poblano:

Clinton 53.7
Obama 46.3

Delegates: +12 Clinton
Popular vote: +120K Clinton

PsiFighter37:

Clinton 54
Obama 46

Delegates: +12 Clinton

We're going to have a blast tonight.