On the ground in the Lehigh Valley

I spent much of the day talking to voters around the Lehigh Valley trying to gauge their attitudes toward the presidential candidates; their level of knowledge and interest in them; their sources of information; their willingness to consider alternative candidates; the issues they care about and those they've already heard enough about; and what they want to see and hear from candidates this year. I was also trying to gauge how the level of turnout relates to enthusiasm for the candidates.

The turnout clearly is huge, as any number of sources are reporting. By mid afternoon, the rural Lehigh County polling places I was visiting had already seen turnout well above 60% of the normal general election turnout. My quick calculations put that turnout somewhat above 40% of the electorate - by mid-afternoon. It's good news, possibly great news, for the Democratic party in Pennsylvania.

I concentrated on more conservative areas of the Valley, and working class and middle class voters. We know, or think we know, a good deal about how liberals and affluent voters are reacting to the candidates. But the conservative end of the middle class is less predictable.

For example, I spoke to a middle-aged mother in rural Heidelberg Township (a moderately conservative area of LV) who was struggling to make ends meet. Her views about what mattered marked her out as a classic Democratic voter. Over and over, she emphasized the need for healthcare reform. Second, she talked about the disappearance of the middle class in the economic squeeze; she wants a president who will preserve a middle class in America. She complained that Iraq is an utter disaster, and resents the abuses committed openly by energy companies, lavishing money on executive bonuses while hiking rates on the rest of us.

To my amazement, it turned out that she's a registered Republican and supports McCain as the best chance for improvement on those issues - issues that McCain has downplayed, rejected, or ignored. How does a voter reach such a paradoxical position? She's the most extreme example of the disconnect that several voters displayed between the issues and policies they care about, and their continued loyalty to a Republican party that doesn't actually serve them well.

She told me, when I asked about her perception of candidates' weaknesses, that she doesn't believe "it's a good time for a female president". Other conservatives said something similar, that the country isn't ready for a woman president. It's not much of a rationale for not casting a vote for Clinton, nor really a personal weakness of hers. I suspect that the argument has taken hold among many conservatives as a justification for not considering a vote for the Democratic candidate when, it's abundantly clear, that it's the Democrats who are taking seriously the issues they care very deeply about.

Will that turn around by November? It will be one of the key benchmarks of the Democratic nominee's campaign this summer, whether it focuses the national debate on the major issues and away from the garbage that has littered the field for the last few months.