Obama's Convincing Defeat

Let the cries of concern troll begin, but let me first assure you that I will be wholeheartedly supporting (financially and time-wise) Sen. Obama should he end up with the nomination and that, last night, I was prepared to jump ship to Sen. Obama should he have closed the gap to something under 5%.  

From my perspective, two primary variables factor into one's ultimate decision in the Democratic fight---one centered on process and the other on policy.  From a policy perspective, for me, the controlling interest has been the debate on health-care reform.  Needless to say, rehashing that here is largely a waste of time; you all are familiar with the differences.  But what has particularly rankled me with regards to this specific debate is how Sen. Obama has characterized Sen. Clinton's efforts in '93-'94.  I believe she made a good faith effort to include the Republicans in the reform process. Indeed, she met with them in April of 1993 and begged them to tell her how she could improve upon her performance, what they needed to hear or wanted to see to mitigate their concerns,etc.  By then, it was well known that the GOP congressional caucus had made the calculated decision that any successfully passed reform would doom the very real possibility they had of winning both houses of Congress; as a result, they would oppose, regardless.  It irks me to no end to see Obama bring out the old tired tripes of secrecy, bullying, and bureaucracy to explain Hillary's failure.   Was that present?  To an extent.  Was it responsible for the failure? Absolutely not.

The 2nd concern we all have in this primary is one centered on process, basically boiling down to who we believe is the most electable.  The national head-to-heads are static, with neither Clinton nor Obama demonstrating any consistent lead over McCain; i think we can all agree on that.  From my perspective, looking at the coalitions constructed by both of our candidates, it seems to me that Sen. Clinton has earned the loyalty of the groups most likely to determine the outcome in the general election---white working class, hispanics, etc.  My hunch is that, as in the past, these will be the key swing demographics.  Has Hillary so alienated African-Americans that they would not turn out in a pattern consistent with past performance and vote for her?  I don't believe so, but obviously I'd put this to the group and would be interested to hear your opinions.  It is well recognized that without a strong African-American showing, the Democrats cannot win in November.

And (time for your accusation of concern troll) I find it troubling that Sen. Obama, with largely favorable press analysis, with tremendous financial advantages, and as the presumptive (and obvious) front-runner, could not make it close in Pennsylvania.  I know the objections to the "favorable" press coverage claim.  But let me say, two co-dominant narratives both during bittergate and after the debate were whether Clinton had overreached, gone too negative.  These stories were demonstrable negatives for Obama, and yet still the press latched onto anti-Hillary narratives almost immediately.  

And let me give some friendly advice to my Obama friends: starting up entire diaries devoted to analyzing whether the margin was 9 or 10% is a useless exercise (as was Hillary's parsing during Obama's rout in February); highlighting marginal improvements in specific demographics vis-a-vis Ohio is a useless exercise.  Clinton won by a wider margin in PA than OH.(UPDATE: Clinton won by near-equivalent amounts) Diminishing Hillary's victory by claiming that she won because of some inherent white racism is both petty, pathetic, and NOT A GOOD WAY to win over a demographic that we'll all need to curry favor with come November.  Finally, this is all about delegates....not specifically pledged, not popular vote, not number of states won, not financial advantage---GROSS TOTAL delegates.  No one will end this campaign with sufficient delegates to claim victory.  Clinton may end up with a larger popular vote total (certainly morally equivalent to a win in pledged delegates, given the inequities in delegate allocation).  The super-delegates will weigh a variety of factors, one of which is appeal to swing voters.  In order to best determine who has the greatest appeal to swing voters, this should continue through June 3rd.  With that data then accrued, they should be able to make a near immediate decision.  

So hold off on the acrimony (I'll try my best, having been guilty in the past), hold off on the calls to drop out, and hold off on the calls that we're ripping the party apart.  We aren't.  The party is healthy, our policies our sound, and either of our candidates would crush McCain.