Why supers won't go for Clinton

Below is another cut at the math. Although superdelegate endorsements have slowed, I think as we get closer to the end, we should see an acceleration. There are at least 3 factors.

1.  Add-ons are being selected and they usually have been endorsing immediately upon selection.

2.  Uncommitted supers from the 9 remaining contests are likely to commit after their primaries are complete.

3.  Supers from other states will likely continue to endorse Obama on May 20th when he passes the 1627 halfway mark of pledged delegates, just as we saw Sen Bingaman from NM do today.

The goal of this is for you to put yourself in the super’s shoes on June 4th after SD and MT (and PR). Look at the numbers forecasted below, and try to imagine how difficult it would be to vote for Clinton.

Current Obama Tally

1490 PDs
241 SDs

Pledged delegate forecast

1. 2 Guam PDs (of 4)  – May 3rd

2. 100 NC/IN PDs (of 187) – May 6th

3. 11 WV PDs (of 28) – May 13th

4. 52 OR/KY PDs(of 105) – May 20th

5. 43 SD/MT/PR PDs (of 86) – June 3rd

Super delegate forecast

1. 13 Add-ons (of 16 to be elected in Obama States (by June 1st) - AK, CO, GA(2), HI, IL(3), LA, ME, MD(2), MS, SC, UT, WY)

2. 18 of 28 SDs from 5 Obama wins in remaining contests (Guam(4), NC(10), OR(8), MT(5), SD(2))

3. 6 from the Pelosi Club

Additional SD gains

1. 4 SDs prior to NC/IN (picked up a representative and a senator in the past few days)

2. 5 SDs prior to NC and OR

3. 9 SDs between May 20th and June 5th (The Oregon Bounce – Obama passes 1627 PDs)

Tally on June 4th

1. PDs today 1490

2. New PDs – 208

3. SDs today - 241

4. New SDs - 55

Total 1994 – 30 shy of 2024

Between June 4th and June 21st, there will be 20 Add-on selections in 13 Obama states.

MN-2
TX-3
VT-1
MT-1
WI-2
ID-1
IA-1
VA-2
WA-2
NC-2
OR-1
SD-1
NB-1

So let’s assume he gets endorsed by 15 of those 20. This would put him at 15 shy of the 2024 needed.

Now as a super, you might want to compare that to where Clinton’s count would be on June 4th. First let’s assume that Clinton matches Obama SD for SD from here until June 4th (55)

1. PDs today - 1336  

2. SDs today – 257

3. New PDs – 202 (to Obama’s 208)

4. New SDs – 55 (See above)

5. Total – 1850

Amount needed to 2024 – 174

Then do THE MATH.

There are 301 remaining Supers and Carter has said he WILL NOT ENDORSE. So that leaves 300. We give Obama and Clinton 55 each up to June 4th. And we forecast Obama’s remaining Add-on’s (15), and we come up with 125 SDs. Subtract 125 from 300, and voila, we have 175 SDs remaining, with Obama needing less than 10% (15), and Clinton needing 99+% (174) to close the deal.

Put yourself in the super’s shoes. You are communicating with all the other supers, and reviewing this math with them. This math is all over the media.

So how would you vote?