New ARG Polls:
Kerry ahead 49-46 in FL with an 8 point lead among indies.
Kerry leads 49-47 in OH with a 6 point lead among indies.
Kerry scoring very well among Dems in both states, but slightly better in Ohio than Florida. Bush strong among Republicans, but is in the mid 80's, not at 90% as he is accustomed. The trend among indies remains consistent as it has all year: in favor of Kerry.
The difference between ARG and the other pollsters is that they base their polls on party registration in the state. Dems have a 4% registration advantage in FL, so the sample is constituted with a 4% Dem advantage. In OH, the difference is +1 Dem. That is an accurate reflection of the 2000 electorate, so these polls represent a good starting point. The additional voters (indies and Dems outnumber Republicans) will likely increase these margins for Kerry on election day.
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ohg/
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/fl/