Debunking Hillary's Primary Vote vs. General Election Vote Theory

Since Senator Obama is ahead of Senator Clinton, in most other leading indicators: popular vote by 700,000 votes out of 26 million cast, a difference of about 3 percent; delegates 1640-1507 (per msnbc); and number of contest won, 30 compared with 14.  Senator Clinton has decided to come up with a disingenuous method of winning.  She decided to use the electoral method.  Her top PA surrogate, Ed Rendell is going around telling every one that will listen that:

Hillary Clinton has won states with about 260 electoral votes. Barack Obama has won states with about 190. And we decide the presidency not by a popular vote, we decide it by the electoral vote.

Yeah, well that is nice, but we decide presidential nominations by delegates and not by electors.

But given the fact that this is Hillary's new Metric, I decided to explore the theory that the winner of an intra-party primary automatically has a better chance of winning a state in a general election.  Check it out......

I went back and looked at the 2000 presidential primary.  There was no imcumbent president.  Al Gore ran against Bill Bradley in the Democratic Primary and George Bush ran against John McCain.

Democratic Primary -  Al Gore won every primary...by some healthy margins against Sen. Bill Bradley

Iowa 63%  
New Hampshire 50%  
Delaware 57%
Washington 68%
California 81%
Connecticut  55%
Georgia 84%
Missouri 64%
Rhode Island 56%
Massachusetts 59%
Maryland 67%
Maine 54%
Ohio 73%
New York 65%
Vermont 54%
Colorado 71%
Utah 79%
Arizona 77%
Tennessee 92%
Florida 81%
Mississippi 89%
Oklahoma 68%
Louisiana 72%
Texas 80%
Illinois 84%
Pennsylvania 74%
Wisconsin 88%
North Carolina 70%
Indiana 74%
West Virginia 72%
Nebraska 69%
Kentucky 71%
New Mexico 74%

If we used Electoral votes in primaries, this would have given him 538 primary electoral votes.  He only got 266 in the general
Republicans -

States George Bush won in primary:

Iowa 41%
Delaware 51%
South Carolina 53%
Virginia 53%
Washington 58%
North Dakota 76%
California 61%
Georgia 67%
Maine 51%
Maryland 56%
Missouri 58%
New York 51%
Ohio 58%
Minnesota 63%
Washington 80%
Florida 74%

If we used the electoral college in primaries, this would give bush 237 primary electoral votes, in the general election he got 271
States that Al Gore won in Primary but didn't win in the General Election:

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
West Virginia
Wyoming

States that George Bush won in Primary, but didn't win in the general:

Delaware
Washington
Iowa
California
Maine
Maryland
New York

Recent history shows that winning a state in the primary season — no matter its importance on the map — doesn’t guarantee success in the general election.

Here are some other examples: In 2004, John Kerry won early Democratic contests in Iowa, Arizona, and Missouri, but he fell short in all three states when pitted against George W. Bush.

In 1992, Bill Clinton captured primaries in Florida and Texas, but lost those states in the general election.

Bill Clinton also captured Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire in his 1992 contest against George H.W. Bush. But he lost all three in the primaries.

In 1984 — Walter Mondale secured the Democratic nomination over Gary Hart in part by winning large industrial states like Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania.

But in the end, he wound up winning just one state against Ronald Reagan: his home state of Minnesota.

Bill Clinton, for instance, captured Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire in his 1992 contest against George H.W. Bush. But he lost all three in the primaries.