NC-Sen, pres: latest dKos poll
Thu May 01, 2008 at 11:55:17 AM PDT
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 4/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/16-18 results)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
Dole (R) 48 (46)
Hagan (D) 41 (39)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
Dole (R) (49) 47
Neal (D) (39) 37
The margins haven't changed, but Dole is still under 50 percent. While this has been a sleep Senate race thus far (suggested by the lack of real movement in the polls), the potential is still there for the Democratic nominee to reach top-tier status.
I also polled how the Democratic candidates would fare against McCain in November:
McCain (R) 50
Obama (D) 41
McCain (R) 51
Clinton (D) 39
I actually expected a greater disparity than +3 Obama. As other polling has shown in the primary head-to-heads, Obama is currently bleeding white support. It's a trend he'll have to work hard to reverse not just for next Tuesday, but also for the rest of the year if he hopes to be competitive in North Carolina, a state that can absolutely be contested in the fall.
Of course, Clinton, without a fraction of Obama's current problems, is nowhere near being competitive.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
Update: If you are looking for Obama v. Clinton numbers, those will be released by a local media outlet tonight. I generally only pay for Senate numbers while other media outlets pay for the presidential stuff.
Race tracker wiki: NC-Sen
NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS - APRIL 2008
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from April 28 through April 30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 287 (48%)
Women 313 (52%)
Democrats 258 (43%)
Republicans 221 (37%)
Independents/Other 121 (20%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 193 (32%)
45-59 184 (31%)
60+ 121 (20%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 10% 34% 17% 8% 31%
MEN 8% 32% 20% 10% 30%
WOMEN 12% 36% 14% 6% 32%
DEMOCRATS 15% 51% 8% 4% 22%
REPUBLICANS 5% 16% 28% 15% 36%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 32% 17% 4% 38%
18-29 13% 39% 13% 4% 31%
30-44 9% 32% 19% 11% 29%
45-59 10% 33% 18% 8% 31%
60+ 9% 33% 17% 8% 33%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Neal? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 8% 30% 21% 9% 32%
MEN 7% 28% 24% 10% 31%
WOMEN 9% 32% 18% 8% 33%
DEMOCRATS 13% 45% 11% 4% 27%
REPUBLICANS 4% 14% 33% 16% 33%
INDEPENDENTS 6% 28% 21% 5% 40%
18-29 10% 34% 17% 5% 34%
30-44 7% 28% 23% 12% 30%
45-59 7% 29% 22% 9% 33%
60+ 8% 29% 21% 8% 34%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY NO
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV OPINION
ALL 16% 28% 23% 18% 15%
MEN 17% 30% 21% 17% 15%
WOMEN 15% 26% 25% 19% 15%
DEMOCRATS 9% 17% 35% 29% 10%
REPUBLICANS 27% 42% 12% 6% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 13% 29% 19% 17% 22%
18-29 11% 24% 28% 20% 17%
30-44 18% 30% 21% 16% 15%
45-59 17% 29% 22% 17% 15%
60+ 16% 29% 23% 18% 14%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Kay Hagan, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
DOLE HAGAN UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 41% 11%
MEN 52% 38% 10%
WOMEN 44% 44% 12%
DEMOCRATS 15% 70% 15%
REPUBLICANS 87% 8% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 47% 39% 14%
18-29 39% 48% 13%
30-44 51% 39% 10%
45-59 49% 40% 11%
60+ 49% 41% 10%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Jim Neal, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican?
DOLE NEAL UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 39% 12%
MEN 53% 36% 11%
WOMEN 45% 42% 13%
DEMOCRATS 16% 67% 17%
REPUBLICANS 87% 8% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 38% 13%
18-29 40% 46% 14%
30-44 52% 36% 12%
45-59 51% 37% 12%
60+ 52% 38% 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
ALL 38% 62%
MEN 42% 58%
WOMEN 34% 66%
DEMOCRATS 8% 92%
REPUBLICANS 74% 26%
INDEPENDENTS 36% 64%
18-29 32% 68%
30-44 41% 59%
45-59 39% 61%
60+ 39% 61%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN OBAMA UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 41% 9%
MEN 55% 37% 8%
WOMEN 45% 45% 10%
DEMOCRATS 17% 74% 9%
REPUBLICANS 86% 5% 9%
OTHER 54% 38% 8%
WHITE 69% 25% 6%
BLACK 8% 78% 14%
OTHER 10% 71% 19%
18-29 41% 52% 7%
30-44 53% 39% 8%
45-59 51% 39% 10%
60+ 52% 38% 10%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
MCCAIN CLINTON UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 39% 10%
MEN 56% 33% 11%
WOMEN 46% 45% 9%
DEMOCRATS 18% 71% 11%
REPUBLICANS 87% 5% 8%
OTHER 56% 34% 10%
WHITE 70% 26% 4%
BLACK 9% 68% 23%
OTHER 11% 69% 20%
18-29 41% 48% 11%
30-44 54% 37% 9%
45-59 52% 37% 11%
60+ 54% 36% 10%
