Q-poll: FL, OH, PA general election matchups

Quinnipiac. 4/23-29. Registered voters. MoE 2.6% in Florida, 2.9% in Ohio, and 2.5% in Pennsylvania. (No trend lines)

Pennsylvania

McCain (R) 38
Obama (D) 47

McCain (R) 37
Clinton (D) 51

Ohio

McCain (R) 43
Obama (D) 42

McCain (R) 38
Clinton (D) 48

Florida

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 43

McCain (R) 41
Clinton (D) 49

Clinton has a +5 advantage in Pennsylvania, +11 in Ohio, and +9 in Florida. I actually have a hard time believe that Obama is this competitive in Florida. Given that Obama is going through perhaps the worst two weeks of his candidacy right now, the fact that he runs even with McCain in Florida is shocking.

Pennsylvania looks fine for both candidates, better than would be expected given its been a dead-even state for a while now. And Ohio? Of these numbers, those have to be the most worrying for Obama. While his path to the nomination doesn't necessarily have to run through Ohio, taking the state would make single-handedly slay McCain given that the 71-year-old Republican seriously threatens only one Kerry state versus Obama -- New Hampshire.

With Clinton at the top of the ticket, McCain threatens the Kerry states of Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Michigan (49 electoral votes), which make Florida and Ohio (47) that much more critical to win the White House. Both the Obama and Clinton paths feature serious potential pitfalls. I still prefer Obama's, especially if -- as Q tells us -- Florida is truly in play.