Countdown to nomination - Obama needs 291 delegates

I tried to write this a simple overview for a friend who doesn't understand the Democratic primary process and really believes, based upon everything she has heard in the media, that Senator Clinton is going to walk away with the nomination.

We are at the point where we can start counting down to the nomination.

According to DemConWatch Obama now has 1490 pledged delegates and 243 superdelegates (1733 total) supporting his bid for the nomination.

Clinton now has 1336 pledged delegates and 260 superdelegates (1596 total) supporting her bid for the nomination.

Only 408 pledged delegates and 291 superdelegates remain (699 undecided / undeclared).

The magic number for the nomination is 2024.

Obama needs 291 (41.8% of those remaining)
Clinton would need 428 (61.4% of those remaining)

As has been discussed, ad nauseum, the delegate allocation system will not allow her to reach the threshhold.  She would need to win all of the remaining primaries by unprecedented numbers and need the overwhelming support of the remaining superdelegates.

In the delegate allocation system, a candidate can win by a large margin in the popular vote, but still end up nearly tied in delegates.  It takes very large wins (often double digits) in each district to create a wide swing in the delegate allocations.

Pledged candidates remaining w/ Obama campign predictions (which remain uncannily accurate):

4     Guam  
prediction 2-Clinton 2-Obama

72    Indiana
prediction 33-Clinton 39-Obama
This is the one prediction that might be overly optimistic.

115   North Carolina
prediction 54-Clinton 61-Obama

28    West Virginia
prediction 15-Clinton 13-Obama

51    Kentucky
prediction 28-Clinton 23-Obama

52    Oregon
prediction 24-Clinton 28-Obama

16    Montana
prediction 7-Clinton 9-Obama

15    South Dakota
prediction 7-Clinton 8-Obama

55    Puerto Rico
prediction 30-Clinton 25-Obama

In this likely scenario:
Clinton picks up 200 pledged delegates
Obama picks up 208 pledged delegates

Then it comes down to superdelegate support.

Obama would need 83 more superdelegates (28.5% of those remaining) to support him.

Clinton would need 228 more superdelegates (78.7% of those remaining) to support her.

This doesn't inlcude the remaining "add-ons" which favor Obama.

Here's another way to look at it.  With 87.5% of pledged delegates reported, Obama has won the nomination (52.4% Obama v. 47.0% Clinton).  Any other election would have been called (as a commanding victrory) by this point.

I truly believe that if Obama ties Guam, wins North Carolina and squeaks out a win in Indiana, the superdelegates will put an end to this next week.