Daily Kos

Obama nets supers by 22-1 margin since May 6 Primaries

Sun May 11, 2008 at 07:29:34 AM PDT

I haven't seen this count diaried anywhere, so I thought I'd spell out (or maybe count out) the net superdelegates won by Obama since his recent big primary victory.

According to DemComWatch, Obama has netted a 22-1 advantage in super delegates since the May 6 primaries in NC and IN. This is assuming I have counted right, but I'm certainly close. He did this by winning endorsement from 22 supers, including three who switched to him after previously endorsing Sen Clinton. HRC picked up four, but when you subtract the three she lost, that gives her a net gain of just one.

You can find the resultshere, at DemComWatch,, which dailykos has been using as its primary source for superdelegates because of the site's transparency and high standards for verification.

On Saturday, Obama got five new supers including one switch (Kevin Rodriguez from the DNC). Clinton gained one, for a net of zero.

I believe this puts the count at 275 - 270.5 for Obama, though DCW hasn't added the final new delegate (Harry Mitchell) to their count.

On Friday 5/9, Obama picked up 9 supers, including one switcher. Clinton gained two and lost the aforementioned switcher. This made it a 9-1 day, net, and marks the only day on which Clinton has had a net gain since May 6.

Some are saying the supers aren't coming in fast enough, but I'd say 22-1 net is a pretty good haul for five days. I think we're likely to have a steady stream from now until May 20, when the OR and KY primaries will clinch the pledged delegate lead for Obama. After that, the stream may become a flood--with the Pelosi Club, already committed to the pledged delegate leader as a good start. In any case the results are inexorable from here on out, and this rate of superdelegate endorsement between now and, say, May 25 would put Obama completely out of reach.

At this point, Obama has a lead of 620,000 votes out of over 31,000,000 cast for Dems in the various primaries--that's a lot of votes, both as a margin for Obama and overall primary votes for Dems. The Dem total basically doubles the number of primary votes received by Dems in 2004 and both candidates, having received 15M+ votes, have dwarfed Kerry's 2004 total of just under 10M. In that election, Kerry got over 60% of the total vote.

This is what is called grinding out a victory for Obama, but he has consistently played by the rules all the way and is winning it fair and square.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Super Delegates, Demcomwatch, Democratic Primaries (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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