Who's on the Chopping Block?

It's not unusual for bad news to be interpreted as a death knell:  CDs/digital music would be the end of radio; the Intarweb would be the end of the newspaper; the Patriot Act is the end of civil rights; etcetera ad nauseum.

At the end of the 2006 elections, there was a quiet undercurrent throughout the news that the power held by the Republicans was at an end.  It was even whispered (quietly) that RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) would spell the end of the GOP.  But what's transpired in the last two years has me scratching my head and chuckling at the all too obvious conclusion:  It would be very easy for the Democrats to be destroyed by their very success.

Ok, before anyone gets too upset, I mean "chuckling" by seeing (to me) an obvious and very possible outcome to the last two years.  An outcome that seems to be ignored by just about everyone, especially Dems.

Think about it.  The Republicans aren't really Republicans any more (as a group).  The party that wanted smaller government has created Homeland Security, armed FEMA, brought us the NSA/Telecom scandal, and committed the nations blood, treasure, and honor to another Vietnam...which was started under Democratic presidents.

So, on that great day in 2006, when the Republican majority was broken, it was a "New Day" for the country.  The Democrats were going to fix all sorts of things:  Iraq, domestic surveillance, corruption in Congress (remember the interns and Hastert?), deception from the White House, even my mother-in-law's creaky floorboard.

What happened?

Two years later, the Iraq war is still going full force (because those damnable Republicans keep blocking our bills).  The NSA may be still spying and now the telecomms are probably going to get immunity (because we have to play "give and take" to get bipartisan support.)  The White House still hasn't come clean about the Iraq war, Valerie Plame, oil companies & Cheney, or secret prisons (because we don't want to use the "nuclear option" of impeachment...it's absolutely off the table.)

True enough, Congress has kept its nose fairly clean--but I would bet that the dirty laundry is piling up.  But my mother-in-law's floorboard still squeaks whenever I visit.

What's my point?  It was all in the Democrats hands, and it was theirs to lose.  If you think that's not a very fair assessment, just look at the Democratic primaries.

• The "anointed one," Clinton, has now become the bitter also-ran in public opinion (regardless of the truth in that perception.)
• The economy has been going downhill while both parties have been fighting over war, emails, amnesty, and immigration.
• Democrats are now trying to court the religious vote.

Huh?  Why include that last one?  Because it shows the underlying identity crisis of the Democratic Party.  Instead of touting the successes of the last two years, the DNCC and leadership are pushing to "re-brand" the party to broaden the appeal.  Don't get me wrong; this can be a very good thing.  

However, it hints of a quiet frustration over the state of the party.  Clinton v. Obama is bringing up racial divides...once the easiest part for Democrats.  Immigration v. Immigrants shows how the working class (who should be Democrats by temperament) are resentful of "something"-Americans, who also "should" be Democrat by temperament.  And ongoing Constitutional "irregularities" (to be kind) show how the party as a whole is paranoid about being called weak on national security...instead of fulfilling those 2006 promises to limit Executive power and "do what is right."

What's going on is probably because of a lot of things out of both parties' control, or at least conditions that can't be changed quickly.  The economy is tanking; the religious right is fed up with the RINOs; our international standing is, at best, unsavory; our foreign allies are either turning out to be total bastards or tired of propping us up (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Britain, Europe, Australia, Israel, Turkey...and don't forget Poland); and our verbal opponents are really not paying much attention to us (Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, China, and Cuba).

What everyone wants, what everyone is looking for, is a way out..."change," to put it into election parlance.  Hillary sort of promised it, then backed off from it ("most experienced"), McCain can't promise it, and Obama looks like Luke Skywalker in Episode IV, the "New Hope," the kid with the new-found power of the Force who will save the day from the Evil Empire..us!  But this only sets up for a bigger disappointment, a bigger failure.

To illustrate, here's my map to the death of the Democratic Party as we know it.

• Step 1. A Democrat gets elected in 2008.  Why is this potentially bad?  Because, as I said before, it will be his or hers to lose.  Clinton or Obama, it doesn't matter; without some real magic in the next four years, a Democratic President will shoulder all the blame.
• Step 2. The Democrats get a bigger majority in Congress.  See step one for reasoning.
• Step 3. Anything short of complete victory and peace (real peace) in Iraq.  This one is almost a given.  Pulling out or not is irrelevant; there is really no way that the US can come out of the Iraq war with a good standing.  If we pull out, the country will probably implode.  If we stay, we are seen as ineffective...and we waste lives and dollars on a pointless operation.  Personally, pulling out to save what we can is about our best hope.  The end of Colonialism was just as ugly, and France/Spain/Britain survived.
• Step 4. The economy continues to go down hill.  As in 1 & 2, this will be seen as the Democrats fault.  No, it's not all their fault, but they would have to pull some pretty drastic measures--unpopular ones--to avoid this pitfall.
• Finally, Step 6. Using any of Bush's expanded interpretations of Executive power.  If, during the years of the next President's term, the Democratic leadership gives in to the temptation to use domestic surveillance, signing statements, executive privilege, secret prisons, or assassinations (Predators targeting cars in Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, or anywhere), it will be proof that, in the end, nothing has really changed.  The temptations will be strong, especially if there are food riots, high unemployment, another Katrina, or any situation that seems to be "just one time."  Because there is always another "just one time" that will lead us down that same road.

Personally, I'm an Obama fan...but I also see the rocks and shoals along this course, and it would be all too easy for this process to come to pass.

If that happens, a Democrat won't stand a chance in hell of getting elected in 2012, and the major components of the Party will sort of just wander away to someone else.

But then, who am I?  Just a concerned citizen.