Predicting West Virginia

It's time to take another crack at the primary season parlor game. Democrats and independents will be voting in the West Virginia Democratic primary tomorrow. Hillary Clinton is poised to win a landslide victory in the Mountain State. Barack Obama has already more or less conceded the state. Thevery few polls that have been done show Hillary Clinton with a 30 point plus lead. In the larger Democratic race the results tomorrow will not alter the outcome - Barack Obama already has an insurmountable lead in delegates for the Democratic nomination. But in the prediction game, its a good one to play.

Since the polls are few and the state-wide margin is not really in doubt, I wanted to play the game at a county by county level. For the record, my state-wide prediction is that Hillary Clinton will beat Barack Obama 70.9% to 29.1%. I predict a statewide turnout of 404,542 voters with Clinton getting 286,675 and Obama getting 117,863 votes. There are 665,234 registered Democrats and 156,199 registered independent voters in West Virginia. For comparison, the 2004 Democratic primary turnout was 252,839 voters.

West Virginia is a neighboring state and just a short drive from where I live. The Virginia counties to the west and south of me soon begin to resemble those in West Virginia - largely rural, Appalachian counties with breathtaking views. The West Virginia population is mainly White, with county median household incomes varying from $20,000 to just above $50,000 in a county close to the Washington DC metro area. The percentage of people living below the poverty line is as low as 9% in the counties nearest Washington DC to as high as 25% in most of the rural counties. It is beautiful country, but it is also a place where Bill Clinton is very fondly remembered. Barack Obama will receive below 10% of the vote in some West Virginia counties.

Here are my county-by-county predictions for tomorrow, based on demographic data and 2008 primary results in similar Appalachian counties in Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

 

County	Total Votes	Clinton	Obama	% Clinton	% Obama
Barbour	3594	2979	615	82.9	17.1
Berkeley	7106	3979	3127	56	44
Boone	9571	8451	1120	88.3	11.7
Braxton	5202	4500	702	86.5	13.5
Brooke	7195	5274	1921	73.3	26.7
Cabell	20627	12789	7838	62	38
Calhoun	2069	1846	223	89.2	10.8
Clay	3541	3229	312	91.2	8.8
Doddridge	843	715	128	84.8	15.2
Fayette	11267	8800	2467	78.1	21.9
Gilmer	2394	1841	553	76.9	23.1
Grant	530	423	107	79.9	20.1
Greenbrier	8533	6357	2176	74.5	25.5
Hampshire	3485	2704	781	77.6	22.4
Hancock	9024	6651	2373	73.7	26.3
Hardy	2734	2174	560	79.5	20.5
Harrison	18725	13182	5543	70.4	29.6
Jackson	5722	4446	1276	77.7	22.3
Jefferson	6994	2301	4693	32.9	67.1
Kanawha	44454	22494	21960	50.6	49.4
Lewis	3843	3170	673	82.5	17.5
Lincoln	6901	6377	524	92.4	7.6
Logan	10890	9137	1753	83.9	16.1
McDowell	7426	5725	1701	77.1	22.9
Marion	18488	12738	5750	68.9	31.1
Marshall	8656	6968	1688	80.5	19.5
Mason	6627	5673	954	85.6	14.4
Mercer	12202	8712	3490	71.4	28.6
Mineral	4181	3102	1079	74.2	25.8
Mingo	10627	9373	1254	88.2	11.8
Monongalia	14606	6032	8574	41.3	58.7
Monroe	3011	2571	440	85.4	14.6
Morgan	1491	1120	371	75.1	24.9
Nicholas	7112	6109	1003	85.9	14.1
Ohio	9918	5514	4404	55.6	44.4
Pendleton	2285	1782	503	78	22
Pleasants	1918	1532	386	79.9	20.1
Pocahontas	2251	1828	423	81.2	18.8
Preston	4442	3642	800	82	18
Putnam	10478	5187	5291	49.5	50.5
Raleigh	14942	10086	4856	67.5	32.5
Randolph	8035	6219	1816	77.4	22.6
Ritchie	1069	945	124	88.4	11.6
Roane	2944	2579	365	87.6	12.4
Summers	3870	2933	937	75.8	24.2
Taylor	3774	3046	728	80.7	19.3
Tucker	2192	1819	373	83	17
Tyler	1395	1200	195	86	14
Upshur	3170	2495	675	78.7	21.3
Wayne	12238	9986	2252	81.6	18.4
Webster	3958	3574	384	90.3	9.7
Wetzel	5515	4544	971	82.4	17.6
Wirt	1488	1248	240	83.9	16.1
Wood	12547	8783	3764	70	30
Wyoming	6442	5791	651	89.9	10.1

[Cross posted at my blog.]