House and Senate Roundup, 5/13

Obviously, the biggest news today is the special election in MS-01, which we will be liveblogging tonight.

Senate Races

OR-Sen: It's Dueling Poll Day, as a Portland Tribune/FOX poll shows Steve Novick leading Jeff Merkley, 29% to 23%, in the Democratic primary...while the ever-reliable SUSA has Merkley topping Novick, 31% to 27%. With the primary a week away, things are getting very exciting in Oregon. The best news is that polling shows both candidates to be competitive against incumbent Gordon Smith.

TX-Sen: Kossack clammyc has interviewed Democratic candidate (and Blue Majority candidate) Rick Noriega for BlogTalkRadio, as part of their excellent series of interviews with Democratic candidates. Check out clammyc's diary for context and links to the interview.

KY-Sen: Polling indicates that Mitch "France is the F-Word" McConnell may in fact be somewhat vulnerable against Democrats Greg Fischer and Bruce Lunsford this fall. He has twelve point leads over both men (48-36 over Lunsford, 47-35 over Fischer), and in both cases fails to garner 50%.

MI-Sen: Meanwhile, Rasmussen indicates that Michigan Democrat Carl Levin is safe. This will surprise no one.

NE-Sen: It's primary day in Nebraska; best of luck to Democrat Scott Kleeb as he faces off against self-funding Johnny-come-lately Tony Raimondo. mcjoan, who has been covering this race extensively, will have more on later.

House Races

MS-01: Obviously, this is going to be the big story of the day. We'll be liveblogging this special election once the polls close, and will have more on the race shortly.

If you plan on following the race tonight, Swing State Project has a table of the results from the April 22 special election. This is immensely useful if you want to get a sense of the district's dempgraphics in preparation for the election tonight.

AK-AL: Embattled Alaska Congressman Don Young, holder of the state's at-large seat since 1973, is in very, very large trouble this year. Coming off several polls showing him trailing Democrat Ethan Berkowitz in a general election, Hays Research now shows him with an insignificant lead, 45% to 42%, over his primary opponent, Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell.

I'm actually not especially happy about this poll, because I think there's a legitimate chance Young might lose to Parnell. Parnell is backed strongly by Governor Sarah Palin, by far the most popular politician in Alaska, and the two of them represent the "good government" wing of an Alaska Republican Party beset by corruption scandals.

If Parnell beats Young in the primary, he may be able to coast to election, as Palin did when she defeated incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski in the 2006 Governor primary. In that election, Democrat Tony Knowles had a healthy lead over Murkowski, but wound up losing by seven points to Palin. I hope we're not in for a repeat.

M0-06: Republican Sam Graves is gearing up for the race of his life against Democrat Kay Barnes, the former mayor of Kansas City. Graves has come out swinging, releasing a TV ad attacking Barnes for...

...wait for it...

"San Francisco values".

I've seen Law and Order episodes less formulaic than the GOP playbook.

OR-05: Republican Mike Erickson is coming under some serious fire from Republican opponent Kevin Mannix. Serious fire such as, accusations of wild cocaine parties on Erickson's boat, as well as reports that the pro-life Erickson impregnated a woman, then paid for her abortion.

If any of this is true, Erickson is in large trouble.