Oil Questions From a Dumb Idiot

The Idiot would be me.

I first posted this as a comment to another story, asking for opinions and solutions to a particular problem, and received only a couple candidate/primary responses.  Shame.

As you will probably be able to tell from what I've written below, I'm no whiz when it comes to the Middle East. But my fears are genuine and concern the Middle East, Oil and how that region will shake out in the near future once we leave.

DHinMI wrote a FP story called Lebanon: Yet Another Foreign Policy Opportunity Screwed Up by the Bush Administrationthat focused on Lebanon, and how the Iraq war has "helped" to affect politics and life in that nation.

It got me wondering about our future as a nation once our nation was through fucking up the futures of the nations of the Middle East, went the hell home and quit sticking our arrogant noses into everyone's business.

In his storey DHinMI quotes from Economist Middle East editor Max Rodenbeck review of WaPo reporter Robin Wright's new book, Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East, which I also quote for reference here, though only in small part:

The Iraq adventure, in Wright's view, may have been the biggest American policy failure of all time. It could yet prove to mark the end of an imperial America's influence in the region, much as France and Britain's catastrophic invasion of Egypt in 1956 demolished the colonial powers' standing and dangerously boosted the fortunes of Egypt's reckless leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser. That is surely a sound judgment.

A sound judgment I agree with.  And since we've blown any credibility we had in the region, my questions now look to the future...a Democratic future.

Let’s say Obama is elected (Yes, We Can!).  And let’s say Obama does what he says and removes our troops from Iraq to concentrate solely on Afghanistan and destroying Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. While I agree with these goals (goals that should’ve been wrapped up 5 years ago!), I’m left wondering what the Iraq region will look like a year after we’re gone, 5 years after we’re gone and even farther into the future.

We understand that our attempt at colonial nation building in the Middle East has been a disaster, and while it will help to place George W. Bush securely at the top of the Worst Presidents of America Evah list (and what does that say about 51% of Americans, hmmm?), I still wish it had never occurred.

We understand that our initial military success was never an indicator of political success in the region, and that this terrible failure is due to our leaders and their lackeys not even trying to understand the politics of the Middle East, let alone the Iraqi people’s desires and wishes for their own self-rule.

And because of all this, I believe that we are done in the Middle East...not just Iraq, but the entire region.  Our word holds no weight, or promises are not met with trust.  

We did this to ourselves and now we must suffer the consequences for these actions. 30% of our oil supply out of our control.

But for as long as we stay so totally addicted to oil, what happens in the Middle East will affect us greatly.  We’ll have no say in what occurs, we won’t be able to use our military in the region again, even if Saudi Arabia remains our friend.  It takes oil and gas to power a military like ours.  It just might be with-held from us...by our friend.

What does anyone think the region will look like in the near future, and how will it affect us if we do nothing to reduce our thirsty dependence for Foreign Oil?

And how will we fare due to seven years of a foolish and dangerous foreign policy?

We need to leave Iraq asap.  I know this.  But we're going to suffer while attempting to fix all of Bush and Cheney's mistakes.  We may not get any of it fixed.  We may get bitten trying.  I guess I'm also wondering:   How badly has that SOB Bush fucked this up?  And how much stock should be placed in anyone trying to clear up this terrible mess for the long term?  Can it be cleared up?  Who should be blamed?  Does laying blame really matter in the long term?

A lot of questions, and I'm thinking about all of them.  I'm trying to keep optimistic, but it's hard.  With all our money tied up in Iraq War Debt, it's hard to imagine what we'll use to invest in a better world for our children.

I know a lot of you will say that we can't leave.  That we're tied to the region for a variety of reasons.  I can't argue with that reasoning.  But I can argue that that line of thought, no matter how sensible and resonable sounding it may be, does not fit the equation of A is not equal to B.  That is my test, you see.  A = 'We cannot leave without creating great damage to both America and the Middle East.'  The Bush/Cheney cartel has sold us down the river ocncerning Iraq and down the river we remain.  But that leaves me thinking about B.  B is the undiscovered answer...the yet to be well-thought-out solution to the problem.  Why?  Well, just because A is true doesn't mean that B is false.  A can be true, and B can be truier, if you get my Colbert twist on it.

We need to refuse to settle for A and find that B.  We can do it...yes, we can.  We just need to put better minds than mine to the task.  Better minds, like some of the people who read and write here.

Peace to all.  Thanks for reading.  Start thinking.