House and Senate Roundup 5/14

House Races

MS-01: The most significant political news from yesterday, by far, was Democrat Travis Childers' commanding victory in the First District of Mississippi. There has already been a great deal of excellent commentary on this race, including outstanding pieces from BarbinMD, DemFromCT, DavidNYC, and another from DemFromCT.

This is a devastating, crushing, soul-shattering loss for the Republican Party. They had no excuses to lose this race, yet they did, and they lost quite badly. Republican leadership should be absolutely terrified...and it seems they are. The terse Boehner is obviously pissed:

"We’ve got to do a better job,’’ added Boehner, who said unspecified changes to the National Republican Congressional Committee would be on the agenda when GOP leaders meet later in the day.

NRCC Chairman Tom Cole sounds like he's ready to clean out his desk:

NRCC Chairman Tom Cole of Oklahoma admitted he is on the hot seat. Asked if he might be replaced, Cole said, "Nobody’s talking to me about anything like that yet, but I said ‘yet.’’’

And one of his predecessors, the retiring Tom Davis, sounds like he can't wait to get the hell out:

Republicans were downbeat after their conference meeting. Asked about the GOP mood, Rep. Thomas M. Davis III , R-Va., stomped his foot on the Capitol corridor floor. "This is the floor. We’re underneath the floor,’’ said Davis, a former NRCC chairman who is not seeking re-election.

The Republican Party is at its lowest ebb in literally decades, perhaps since 1974.

NJ-05: Democrat Dennis Shulman, popular among the netroots and waging a surprisingly strong challenge to GOP incumbent Scott Garrett, has released his first TV ad. Pretty cool stuff:

CA-04: Former Republican Rep. Doug Ose, the moderate candidate in the GOP's hunt to fill the shoes of the disgraced John Doolittle, is throwing a boatload of his own money into the Republican primary, and with good reason; he faces off against a conservative icon in State Senator, perennial candidate, and 400-mile carpetbagger Tom McClintock. McClintock really is a legend among California righties, and has come close on multiple occasions to winning statewide office.

It's difficult to say who would be a tougher opponent against Democratic candidate (and Blue Majority candidate) Charlie Brown, although I suspect it would be Ose. Regardless, the uglier their primary gets, the better off we'll be, so let's hope for plenty of continued fireworks. And feel free to help out Brown at the Blue Majority ActBlue page.

WV-01: This is an R+5.7 district, but the Republicans can't find anybody-not even a token challenger-to run against Democrat Alan Mollohan.

NY-13: Despite her friendship with already-declared candidate Domenic Recchia, State Senator Diane Savino is considering a bid for the seat, currently held by Republican Vino Vito Fossella.

Meanwhile, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has to think about whether or not to back Fossella, the former city chair of his 2005 campaign, should he run again. I'm really not sure what's to think about, to be honest.

NY-29: Howard Dean is in Rochester this week, on behalf of
Blue Majority candidate Eric Massa. Since losing by just two points in 2006, Massa has done everything right; he's dominating the fundraising game, with more than 50% more on hand than his dispirited Republican opponent, "Shotgun Randy" Kuhl.

MI-13: Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, representative of the solidly Democratic Detroit-based 13th, faces a two-headed primary challenge, from former State Rep. Mary Waters and State Senator Martha Scott. Scott, in particular, has a considerable political base in the district and could be a serious contender, particularly as Detroit politics are rather messy right now.

Senate Races

KY-Sen: With a week until the Kentucky primary, Democrat Greg Fischer hopes to pull out the upset victory over Bruce Lunsford, but Roll Call is skeptical:

The clock is ticking down on Kentucky’s Senate Democratic primary race, and although businessman Greg Fischer has shown an ability to steadily pick up polling points in recent weeks, the gap may still be too wide for him to overtake health care executive Bruce Lunsford before Tuesday.

Coming off his failed 2007 gubernatorial run, Lunsford entered the seven-way primary race in January with a clear name identification advantage over Fischer, a first-time candidate. Lunsford, who is personally very wealthy, also entered the race with the backing of national Democratic leaders.

And though various polling numbers have shown Fisher gaining about 20 points on Lunsford over the past four weeks, a survey released Tuesday by the Lexington Herald-Leader showed Fischer was still trailing Lunsford, 43 percent to 23 percent. That poll of 500 likely Democratic voters was conducted May 7-9 and had a margin of error of 4 points.

Best of luck to Fischer; it would be nice to see him pull this out.

NE-Sen: Congratulations to Democratic nominee Scott Kleeb! He'll have his hands full taking on Mike Johanns, the Republican former governor, but we're lucky to have a candidate of whom we can be genuinely proud running the race.

CO-Sen: Mark Udall is on the airwaves with his first ad:

MS-Sen-B: Things have been awfully quiet in the Mississippi Senate Race as Democrat Ronnie Musgrove and Republican Roger Wicker prepare for their showdown. Last night's special election victory, though, has led to increased speculation about Musgrove's chances. The race has not been polled in months, but Musgrove was quite competitive when it was polled, even showing a considerable lead in one poll.

Mississippi is roughly 37% black, the highest percentage in the nation. It's probably reasonable to assume that black turnout may be increased with an Obama candidacy.

Travis Childers was able to win last night partly via his support from poor white voters-the kind of voters who, in the South, have gravitated toward the Republican party against their economic interests over the past several years. If Musgrove can repeat Childers' inroads into that demographic, and if black turnout really does increase as much as Obama fans hope it will, Musgrove has a legitimate shot at beating Wicker.