There has been some rumblings here, as well as in the main-stream media, that Hillary Clinton knows that this race is over. But she is hanging on in hopes of damaging Barack Obama so badly that he loses the general election and she can run as the "I told you so" candidate.
More below the fold...
For example, consider this Mother Jones article:
http://www.motherjones.com/...
No doubt, a combo of these rationales is fueling Clinton's impossible ride. But let me add one more to the mix: Clinton is setting up the biggest I-told-you-so in recent American political history.
Assume Obama is the nominee and imagine that he loses to McCain in the fall. Where would that leave Clinton? She would be able to wag her finger at her party, and she wouldn't even have to say those haughty words. She and her die-hard confederates would be able to note simply and smugly, We did try to warn you. In the following four years, they would remind reporters, party leaders, Democratic voters, and everyone else, over and over, that they had said that Obama was unelectable, that they had said he could not win blue-collar (that is, white) voters. This Clinton chorus would not cease singing this song for a nanosecond. Can't you just see Bill Clinton and Terry McAuliffe lecturing cable news hosts on this point? Hiding their schadenfreude--just barely--they would note that they had won the fundamental argument of 2008: who understands American voters the best? And in this scenario, Hillary Clinton would be well-positioned for 2012. In fact, she would have such bragging rights as to be able to question any other Democrat's entry into the presidential contest. She might even expect the party this time to hand her the nomination on a platter--accompanied with one big apology.
Note that the article is well written and worth reading; it does go on to say that HRC is not secretly hoping that John "more of the same" McCain wins but rather staying in so as to make the case in the event that he wins. There is a difference.
Nevertheless, I am not buying this argument and here is why:
First: On what basis does she become the front runner in 2012 if indeed "more of the same" McCain pulls the improbable upset?
She started the primary with an advantage in money and huge advantages in
Yet, she managed to squander all of that. This makes her a front runner next time, if there is indeed a next time? If nothing else, this would embolden the currently lesser known challengers to jump in!
Second: Demographics. Much of her support comes from the current elderly (especially white women) and the sad fact is that a high percentage of these folks simply won't be with us in 2012.
Much of her support comes from white voters, and the fact is that, on the whole, white voters are becoming a smaller percentage of the population. Of course, one could argue that Latinos support her and are a growing part of the population, but remember that the younger Latinos supported Obama more than the older ones did.
Another fact (one that Clinton trumpets) is that she is doing well among the uneducated voters. I don't have the hard core data to back this up, but I think that America is becoming more educated with time, and so her base will end up shrinking some more.
So, I'd have to say that her chances in 2012 will be far smaller than they were this year, even given the (improbable) event that Obama loses to "more of the same" McCain.
(why I think that Obama will win? Check out the political futures market, for both the winning candidate and the winning party).
Conclusion My conjecture is that Hillary Clinton really isn't looking ahead to 2012. She is staying in because she knows that it is really "now or never" for her; if she doesn't win this year, her chances are gone.
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