House and Senate Roundup, 5/15

CO-Sen: It's only been one day, but Bob Schaffer's "Mt. Macaca" moment is fast becoming the stuff of Internet legend.

Schaffer released a TV ad yesterday, his first of the cycle, in which he claimed "Colorado is my life". Unfortunately, he said this as the ad depicted a photo of Mt. McKinley, the tallest peak in North America...and located in the State of Alaska.

As MissLaura noted in the midday open thread, the DSCC has put together a nifty little quiz for our man Schaffer, so as to prepare him better for the rigors of campaigning in the State of Alaska Colorado.

Meanwhile, the campaign of Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich had a dryly hilarious response:

"While Alaskans can understand why Bob Schaffer would promote our beautiful mountain, I hope he doesn't expect Alaska to cede North America's highest peak to the State of Colorado."

AK-Sen, AK-AL: Speaking of Begich, Kos posted the remarkable polling numbers out of Alaska earlier.

Begich leads incumbent Senator Ted Stevens, an Alaska institution currently under investigation by the FBI, by a margin of 48% to 43%. Given Stevens' tenure, and (until recently) his tremendous popularity, it's remarkable to think that he may very well lose his bid for reelection. Alaska has been GOP country, and Stevens country, for my entire lifetime.

Meanwhile, House candidate Ethan Berkowitz leads 34-year Republican incumbent Don Young by an even wider margin, 50% to 40%. Provided Young survives his primary challenge from Lt. Governor Sean Parnell-which is no certainty-Berkowitz could hardly be in better position for the fall.

Even the presidential race is somewhat competitive in Alaska; it's hard to look at these numbers and not sense that we're entering a new era for the state of Alaska and the Democratic Party.

GA-Sen: Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision has polled the Democratic primary in Georgia, as well as general-election matchups. Unfortunately, Vernon Jones is leading the Democratic primary, with Dale Cardwell second and Jim Martin third. Jones is a real piece of work, as Tondee's Tavern notes.

Worse luck, Saxby Chambliss has a 30+ point lead over all Democratic challengers, and while I certainly don't expect that we'll win this seat, I sure would like to come closer than 65%-35%.

House Races

ID-01: Congressman Bill "Absolute Idiot" Sali is getting hammered by the local press for canceling a debate appearance against primary opponent Matt Salisbury.

IL-14: After four failed campaigns-two for U.S. Senate, one for Governor of Illinois, one for the U.S. House-perennial candidate and famed nutter Jim Oberweis has decided it's time for an image overhaul. (Good thinking, Jim).

Dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (R) is trying to soften his image in suburban Chicago, according to local media reports, going so far as to cold-call reporters in search of why he lost ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R) seat in a March special election.

Dubbed the "What Went Wrong Tour" by The Aurora Beacon News, Oberweis is trying to overcome his smug reputation, earned after four highly negative political campaigns on which he has spent millions of dollars of his own money.

"People like to support people they feel like they know and can identify with," an Oberweis spokesman told the newspaper. "We can do a better job of letting people know who Jim is."

See, there's the problem. After four campaigns, people already know who Jim Oberweis is. It's why they voted for Bill Foster.

GA-10: Republican incumbent "Porno Paul" Broun made the mistake of defeating a favored GOP candidate in last year's special election, and as such, he has been targeted by the Georgia Republican establishment in this year's primary.

Porno Paul faces a remarkably stiff primary challenge (pun intended) from Barry Fleming, one so serious that House Republican leaders are forced to come to his rescue. Given their recent track record, I'm not sure Broun should be seeking their help.

If that primary gets ugly enough, it could create an opening for Democrat Bobby Saxon. This race is a long shot of long shots, but it should be interesting to follow at least. And one never knows...we've been doing some very exciting things in Southern House races lately.

LA-04: Speaking of Southern House races, Roll Call has an article about the Democratic resurgence in the South, marked by the two recent special election victories. Next on the Democratic hit list in the region is likely LA-04, home of the retiring Jim McCrery.

The district is 33% black, and has a PVI similar to Rep. Don Cazayoux's district of LA-06 (it's R+6.5). The Democratic candidate is prosecutor Paul Carmouche, and Roll Call seems surprisingly optimistic about Dem chances:

If Democrats can avoid a divisive primary battle and bring to bear the party’s vast fundraising resources — which will only be bolstered by the party’s performance in the recent special elections — then the 4th district will present another key Southern opportunity in the same mold as Louisiana’s 6th and Mississippi’s 1st.

It's real nice to  be taking the fight to Republicans in their regional stronghold, as DemFromCT noted yesterday.

NM-01: Democrat Martin Heinrich has aired his first TV ad: