Oregon Prediction Roundup: O: 58% C: 40% (with Maps!)

    I have a special connection with Oregon - I was born in its capital of Salem.  Ironically, Salem is one of the few places in Oregon where I don't necessarily expect Barack to do that well.

    The thing I love most about Oregon is that it will help lay bare the vacuousness of the media-driven meme that Obama has a problem winning over white voters.  We all know, of course, that this is pure nonsense.  According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama trail John McCain by 7 points among white working-class voters.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    In general, if you examine the overall trends of the Democratic primary, it pretty much boils down to this:  Obama does better than Clinton with white voters in the West and Upper Midwest; Clinton does better than Obama with white voters in Appalachia and the South.  They roughly split the white vote in the Northeast/New England area.

    In Oregon, Obama should do particularly well with white voters.  One of the reasons of course has to do with regionalism; the racial attitudes of people in Western states are less entrenched than in other parts of the country, such as Appalachia.  Other factors for Obama's potential success with white voters in Oregon are based on ethnic and religious considerations.

    Ethnically speaking, Oregon is somewhat similar to Indiana.  Both states are largely white, with relatively large German ancestries (over 20% for each) and Obama tends to do rather well with states that have strong German influences (think Wisconsin and Minnesota).  Oregon also has a relatively high percentage of Scandinavians - 4.3% of Oregonians are of Norwegian descent, making Oregon the state with the 8th highest percentage of Norwegians in the country.  As of yet, Barack Obama has done very well in states that have a significant Scandinavian population - namely Minnesota, Washington, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

    One clear difference between Oregon and Indiana lies in the percentage of people who cite "American" as their heritage.  In Indiana, this percentage is 12% and in Oregon it is just 6.2%.  Another difference is that Southern Indiana, which borders Kentucky, has more in common with the Southern states culturally, than it does the Midwestern or Western states, which are Obama's strongholds.

    Religiously, Oregon is tied with Colorado for having the third highest percentage of people who consider themselves secular (21%).  According to the 1990 Glenmary study, Oregon also has one of the lowest percentages of organized affiliated Christians (32%) and one of the highest percentages of unaffiliated Christians (27%).  In general, Obama has done well with unaffiliated Christians and people who consider themselves secular.  He has also done well with white Protestants, depending on the region.

    The religious groups that have the highest membership in Oregon are the Catholic Church, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormon), and the Evangelical Lutherans.  But even with the Catholic Church being the largest organized denomination of Christians in the state, they still only make up 9.8% of Oregon's population as a whole.

http://www.adherents.com/...

    One factor that has been mentioned repeatedly in the Democratic primary is education.  Exit polls have demonstrated that Obama generally does better than Clinton among white voters with college degrees and that Clinton does better among white voters without college degrees.  However, it would seem that, on occasion, ethnic, religious, and regional factors trump educational background.  For instance, Obama won the vast majority of Northern Wisconsin counties, where the percentage of voters with college degrees is very low.  The same phenomenon held true for contests in Utah, Minnesota, and Wyoming and other states as well.

    In any case, when you combine all of these factors together, it would seem as though Barack Obama is poised for a large victory in Oregon this coming Tuesday.  

Oregon has five Congressional Districts.  

OR-01, with 7 delegates, is basically Northwestern Oregon.  Including portions of Portland and Beaverton, it has the highest percentage of high school graduates of any of Oregon's Congressional districts (90%) and also the highest median income ($55,000).  Obama will definitely win the district, but by how much?  He would need to exceed 64.3% of the vote in the district to get the 5-2 split and I don't think he can pull that off.  It will be a 4-3 split.  (As an interesting side note, the remainder of Oregon's Congressional districts have the same percentage of high school graduates - 87%.)

Running tally:  Obama +1

OR-02 encompasses the entire eastern two thirds of the state.  Though it is huge in area and is the most populous of Oregon's Congressional districts, it only has five Democratic primary delegates.  I expect Obama to carry the district by about 5 or 10 percentage points for a 3-2 split.

Running tally:  Obama +2

OR-03, with 9 delegates, would seem to be prime Obama territory.  It includes much of the Portland metropolitan area, has the highest percentage of African Americans in Oregon, and is by far the most liberal of all of Oregon's Congressional districts.  Obama needs 61.2% of the vote to get a 6-3 split here.  Can he do it?  If he were to get a 15 point victory statewide - which I think he can do - this is definitely a district where he could overperform.  I predict he will get 62% of the vote for a 6-3 split.

Running tally:  Obama +5

OR-04, with 7 delegates, is basically southwestern Oregon.  Including the Obama stronghold of Euguene/Springfield, Obama should win the district though perhaps more narrowly than the other districts.  He'll probably take it with something resembling 54% of the vote for a 4-3 split.

Running tally:  Obama +6

OR-05, with 6 delegates, is an interestingly carved district featuring the southern portion of the Portland metro area, Oregon's capital of Salem, and a large section of the Oregon coast.  This is the second most affluent of Oregon's congressional districts with a median income of $49,000.  It's a tough call, but I expect Obama to win it by a few points.  It won't matter though because it's unlikely he will get past the 58.4% barrier to attain the 4-2 split.

Running tally:  Obama +6

The rest of the 18 delegates are divided as follows:
12 at large delegates
6 PLEO delegates

It is my prediction that Obama will carry the state of Oregon as a whole by over 18 points 58.5% to 40.3%. I believe it will turn out roughly like Wisconsin did (which was 58 - 41).  This will give him an 11 to 7 edge in the remaining delegates for an overall delegate win of +10.

Final tally:  Obama 31, Clinton 21

With his win in Oregon, Obama will clinch the pledged delegate majority.  

Here is a map I made that shows basically what I think will happen on election day.  As a side note, my Pennsylvania and Indiana maps were largely accurate.

Dark Blue - Obama strong
Blue - Obama
White - tie/tossup
Red - Clinton
Dark Red - n/a (would have been Clinton strong)