SUSA: Obama wins Virginia
by kos
Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:05:01 PM PDT
SurveyUSA. 5/18-22. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (4/11-13 results)
McCain (R) 42 (52)
Obama (D) 49 (44)
That's a 15-point swing in five weeks. You're starting to see the Obama victory bounce, even if Clinton won't finally admit she lost.
And that's with SUSA underpolling the black vote -- 18 percent, when in 2004 blacks were 21 percent of the Virginia general election voter pool. Who thinks African American turnout will be lower in 2008?
Also note that according to SUSA, women vote for Obama at a 54-38 clip, and Latinos (4 percent of the survey, 3 percent in 2004) select Obama at a healthy 64-32 clip.
Clinton wasn't polled. I wonder if there's bias in polls that poll both candidates, especially if the Clinton matchup is listed first.
That last SUSA poll included both matchups, and this one didn't. It could partly explain the huge 15-point swing.
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