Big Blowout for Obama Forecast in Guam (WRONG!!!)

If 9.2% is a decisive win in Pennsylvania, then what would a 30% margin be in Guam?  None of the usual suspects have conducted any polls in Guam, but AFP reports:

Although there was no obvious pre-election favorite, political analyst Dr. Ron McNinch forecast Obama to take 65 percent of the vote.  McNinch, a professor at the University of Guam, said voter sampling showed Obama had a "cross-cutting demographic appeal in Guam and in a number of ways he has a better sort of connection to our public."

Two superdelegates are being chosen today, too, to fill a couple of vacant party positions.  Looks like a very likely +2 delegate advantage for Obama in those alone.  Possibly as high as five by the end of the day.  Results have begun to come in, but at this writing, less than 100 of the roughly 4,000 votes cast have been reported.

UPDATE:  Prof. What's-his-face obvious didn't know what he was talking about.  That's the last time I take his predictions seriously!!!!  Oh well. As Wolfson likes to say - "A win is a win."

From the far side of the International Dateline, it is almost Sunday now.  The voting in Guam’s presidential caucus is over.  Though it sounds like the kind of caucus we had in NM, which is essentially a primary.  And, like in NM, they seem to have run run short of ballots:

Some islanders, thrilled to finally be in the limelight, have hastily joined the party just so they can take part in the process, leading to the moniker "Democrat for a Day."
...
"This is a historic event for Guam. I want to do my part," said Alexandra Kerr, a 19-year-old university student who was waiting to cast her ballot in Dededo, the largest village on this Pacific island, which is over 20 hours by plane from Washington.

AFP’s coverage seems to lean a little towards Obama.  It’s not clear whether that’s because he opened an office there and had more availability to the press, or because he’s seen as offering more specifics to the locals.  Did you know there’s a troop buildup slated for Guam?  That’s because they are being pulled back from Okinawa:

Obama has pledged that local contractors would get the lion's share of the upcoming construction work to build homes and offices for the arriving forces.

Nothing in the report about what Hillary’s stand is on troop relocation.  Clinton’s been running on her First Lady credentials again, though it’s hard to imagine her argument will have a huge effect (WaPo via Reuters Reuters):

Clinton has reminded voters about her multiple visits to Guam during stopovers on presidential trips with her husband to Asia, and Obama has emphasized his Pacific connections through his upbringing in Hawaii and Indonesia.

Larry Craig has had a lot of stopovers in Minneapolis, too.  (Jest sayin’.)  In a reflection of how the campaign has run earlier in the year, Obama has three staffers in Guam, and Hillary’s relying on a local pol.

ABC’s Jake Tapper has taken the opposite tack to AFP and provides coverage of the Clinton campaign in Guam.  The junior Senator from New York wants every vote to count:

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., has told residents of that Pacific territory that as president she will work to give them the right to vote for president. ...
"It seems to me that it is long past time that we remedy this inequity," Clinton said. "It doesn't reflect American values; it is out of step with the move toward equality and full citizenship rights, and I will do everything I can to make sure the people of Guam's votes are counted. It seems to me that it is long past time that we remedy this inequity. It doesn't reflect American values; it is out of step with the move towards equality and full citizenship rights, and I will do everything I can to make sure the people of Guam's vote are counted."

Video here.  Obama position paper on Guam is available, too.  (2-page PDF)

Since today’s vote in Guam is officially a caucus, don’t be surprised if the Clinton campaign argues that today’s vote doesn’t really matter if when she doesn’t do well there.

9 Delegates at Stake in Guam
In addition to the 4 delegate votes for Denver (8 delegates with 1/2 vote each), Guam has 5 superdelegates.  One has declared for Clinton.  Another position will be filled by either Benjamin Cruz or Mike Phillips, both Obama supporters.  Two party offices will be filled in today’s election, too.  If Prof. McNinch is right, those are very likely to be two superdelegates picked up by Obama.  The fifth, Madeleine Bardallo, is as of yet undeclared.  As the protectorate’s delegate to Congress, I wouldn’t be surprised if she waits a bit more, and jumps on the winner’s bandwagon.  It’s either that or go with her voters.  So it’s not unreasonable to think she might end up in the Obama column.